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I would say it's more than likely one of the two oil seals in the upper that seal the vertical driveshaft. However, I don't see it leaking past the water pump upper piece and gaskets.
It's really hard to tell without pulling the drive apart and confirming. If you don't have the tools you'll probably have to take it to a shop. They need to pressure test it first to make sure it does have a leak. When I have a leaky seal I go ahead and replace them all just to be safe. Oil coming out means water can get in. Water and $$ gears and bearings do not mix.
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