Probably wont do well and remeber it is a movie and they rarely reflect accurate real life events or even fictional book events very well.
Almost all authors hate movie versions of their books, Peter Benchley (sp) hated Jaws (steven spielbergs first movie), Tom Clancy doesn't like the movie versions of his books ( but they still cash the checks) and so on.
Hopefully the "general" public will enjoy the entertainment value and it will do well. Hard to tell what will work these days. Mrs Doubtfire had a bigger gross than Saving Private Ryan.
I think a boat version of cross between Hotdog the movie (skiing) and the first cannonball run would make some $$. Hotdog had some great skiing scenes and Shannon Tweeded naked. Cannonball run had some classic stars and if you checked your mind at the door was pretty funny at the time with some nice cars.
I just think with a decent (not too far fetched) storyline of david vs goliath, or versus the man (ala smokey & the bandit) some stars of today, some babes in bikinis, the hottest offshore boats in the world, great sound track and make it funny without a lot of the cheese you see in b movies today and I think some studio could have a very decent spring release.
What do I know but I'd like to see someone make it. Maybe I will start on the script and story board (they way steven spielberg did it for jaws)
I can see it now, you start with a shot of the transom of say Bacardi Silver at first light and fire it up, just like the diesel starting in Smokey....yea...this will work!