My hopelessly unenlightened opinion:
Demand mostly in China is the demand factor that has driven at barrel
China has been an economic juggernaut far out of proportion to the real
amount of wealth there. This house of cards will come crashing down later
this year after the olympics. China will suffer an economic disaster of economic proportions (from too much being poured in too fast on prospects that won't materialize for years to come). Their demand, actually need, for
oil will drop dramatically.
The price of gas at our pumps will never drop. Forget about that. But the above event I believe will have it plateau for several years.
But then, what do I know.