Shane

Japan is in a far different situation than the U.S. Deflation for one thing. Capitalism for another. We have a much more sound and robust economy that as of late has been driven by the consumer. Real GDP growth has been about 1-2% and will probably remain there until capacity utilization return to 90 to 95% level at which time Cap-Ex will resume. Once Cap-Ex is back many other positives will follow. Additionally, Americans are sitting on 3 Trillion in bank deposits. As that money begins to flow back into the markets that too will advance the averages. Additionally, if you look back the worst 10 year period in the market was from 1929 to 1938. Also known as the Great Depression. So far this decade we have began with 3 negative years. If we were to duplicate the returns of that same period the markets as measured by the S&P 500 would have to climd 5.7% each year for the next 7 years straight! So how under valued do you think things are? Much of the risk has been removed from the equity markets and should return over time as investor confidence builds. We are also a service economy Japan is a manufacturing economy who derives a great deal of its income from over seas exports. We are not dependent upon other countries to the extent that Japan is. The U.S. dollar is still the most sought after currency. The list goes on and on. There are virtually no parallels to be drawn with Japan. Not trying to be agrumentative, just informative.

Bulldog

YEAH!

What Shane said....

MoFo!

All kidding aside, thanks for educating us Shane!

Just Browsing

Shane and Tulsa Larry:

What firm(s) are you with?

SoCalOffshore

As a CFP who manages over $100 million, I show the market low for our portfolios on 10/07/02. The probabilities are improving everyday that that was the end of the great Bear that started on or about 03/15/00.

Shane

We see the SAME THING!

Shane

I am with Ayco Asset Management, a division of Goldman Sachs. I manage about $250 million in client assets.

mpally

Cat, put this in percent form, what percent of his portfolio is 200K? Putting it in dollar terms really doesn't say much. If 200K is 5% of his portfolio, I 'd say he did rather well. If it is 95% of his portfolio, I hope he learned some lessons. If you are well diversified, you should have very few worries. The last couple of years have been a great buying period. If you got out in the last year or so, you are in trouble. No one can tell when that market is going to take off again and if you miss it, you are in even more trouble. BTW, how would you have lost it all if you would have stayed in?

vtec

Shane:

Where did you go to school?


vtec

Shane

I started college at Drew University and transferred to and graduated from Clarkson University.

TulsaLarry

Morgan Stanley