mcollinstn, prepare to be stumped.
10-05-2003, 04:00 PM
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mcollinstn, prepare to be stumped.
since I havent seen a thread with out your answer in some kind of lots of info fashion, how about this? Prepare to be stumped.
Thinking of a number between 1-10 Can you guess it?
Thinking of a number between 1-10 Can you guess it?
10-05-2003, 07:44 PM
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Tommy, the answer to your question in a most comprehensive manner is as follows:
Yes, I can.
Most certainly. I can think of no significant barrier that would prevent me from taking a stab at it at all.
As to whether I can accurately pinpoint the number you have chosen, then that is another matter altogether.
In fact, I presume that I can guess it no more or no less accurately than any other who may attempt a guess.
If, as you say, you are describing a sample range encompassing only true integers not including the start and end limits (the 1 and the 10 are not possible choices), then I would say that my odds of guessing the number would be exactly ONE IN EIGHT.
This statistical measure of odds, however, is only accurate if the chosen number is truly a random choice. Given that it is a number chosen by a human being, there are many social and emotional ramifications that should be taken into account in order to determine the probabilities of whether the chooser (you) has skewed the value:
1) away from the endpoints
2) slightly offcenter
or
3) towards the high end of the range.
There have been studies that have shown that it is statistically "more likely" that a human will choose a value that is near the midpoint, but NOT the midpoint. With this in mind, we could take an assumption and remove the midpoint from the list of possibilities. This would increase my chances to ONE IN SEVEN.
This would only apply, however, if the midpoint were no longer a possibility (which it certainly is).
In reality, the lowest odds are 1 in 8, the best odds are 1 in 7, and the most probable odds are somewhere inbetween - say 15 in 112 ?
In short, yes, I can certainly guess.
Yes, I can.
Most certainly. I can think of no significant barrier that would prevent me from taking a stab at it at all.
As to whether I can accurately pinpoint the number you have chosen, then that is another matter altogether.
In fact, I presume that I can guess it no more or no less accurately than any other who may attempt a guess.
If, as you say, you are describing a sample range encompassing only true integers not including the start and end limits (the 1 and the 10 are not possible choices), then I would say that my odds of guessing the number would be exactly ONE IN EIGHT.
This statistical measure of odds, however, is only accurate if the chosen number is truly a random choice. Given that it is a number chosen by a human being, there are many social and emotional ramifications that should be taken into account in order to determine the probabilities of whether the chooser (you) has skewed the value:
1) away from the endpoints
2) slightly offcenter
or
3) towards the high end of the range.
There have been studies that have shown that it is statistically "more likely" that a human will choose a value that is near the midpoint, but NOT the midpoint. With this in mind, we could take an assumption and remove the midpoint from the list of possibilities. This would increase my chances to ONE IN SEVEN.
This would only apply, however, if the midpoint were no longer a possibility (which it certainly is).
In reality, the lowest odds are 1 in 8, the best odds are 1 in 7, and the most probable odds are somewhere inbetween - say 15 in 112 ?
In short, yes, I can certainly guess.
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10-05-2003, 10:25 PM
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It's always eight, I didn't know why until mcollinstn explained it to me.
I agree though, I repect his opinion on this board probably more than any other. And I don't think he is proned to guessing!
I agree though, I repect his opinion on this board probably more than any other. And I don't think he is proned to guessing!
