Statistics gurus! Winter Challenge: "Weird" Poker Run Hands - How do you score them?
10-25-2013 | 01:15 PM
#1
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From: Coastal North Carolina
Statistics gurus! Winter Challenge: "Weird" Poker Run Hands - How do you score them?
Here's one to think about over the winter.
In many poker runs, actual cards are handed out, usually in sealed envelopes. This means that lots of decks are in play. Recently, I pulled a Queen of hearts, a nine of spades, and three Jacks, all diamonds. Normal poker rules classify this as "three of a kind", but I think that the actual odds are even higher than that of having a straight, a flush, or even a full house. If the odds of three of a kind are 46.3:1, What are the odds of pulling three of a kind, all of the same suit? Three times that (138.9:1), or the cube of 46.3 (4,595,406:1)?
The situation is further complicated by the fact that you could have all five cards the same, so instead of 2,598,960 different hands, there are a lot more possibilities.
Has anyone had any experience in actually calculating the odds for/value of hands that contain duplicate cards when multiple decks are in play? It can be done; it's just statistics, but my skills have gotten pretty rusty since college, and Poker rules have an effect on how statistics are applied.
Here is a starting point:
Poker Hand probabilities (Wikipedia)
In many poker runs, actual cards are handed out, usually in sealed envelopes. This means that lots of decks are in play. Recently, I pulled a Queen of hearts, a nine of spades, and three Jacks, all diamonds. Normal poker rules classify this as "three of a kind", but I think that the actual odds are even higher than that of having a straight, a flush, or even a full house. If the odds of three of a kind are 46.3:1, What are the odds of pulling three of a kind, all of the same suit? Three times that (138.9:1), or the cube of 46.3 (4,595,406:1)?
The situation is further complicated by the fact that you could have all five cards the same, so instead of 2,598,960 different hands, there are a lot more possibilities.
Has anyone had any experience in actually calculating the odds for/value of hands that contain duplicate cards when multiple decks are in play? It can be done; it's just statistics, but my skills have gotten pretty rusty since college, and Poker rules have an effect on how statistics are applied.
Here is a starting point:
Poker Hand probabilities (Wikipedia)
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10-25-2013 | 04:10 PM
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From: Chesapeake Bay
Chris it's almost 5, you sure you only need a 12? For a poker run all I need to know is what's the low hand. Because that's my luck.
I've seen poker runs played where you get a card each stop with multiple decks and I've seen where at each stop you get a "card" but you don't actually pull the cards till the last stop and it's only 1 deck to pull from. That seems more straight forward to me, but I've also heard people complain that that way is not the "proper" way to run a poker run. It was definitely more straight forward though.
On second thought I need a beer also.
I've seen poker runs played where you get a card each stop with multiple decks and I've seen where at each stop you get a "card" but you don't actually pull the cards till the last stop and it's only 1 deck to pull from. That seems more straight forward to me, but I've also heard people complain that that way is not the "proper" way to run a poker run. It was definitely more straight forward though.
On second thought I need a beer also.
10-25-2013 | 06:43 PM
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From: Chesapeake Bay
10-25-2013 | 09:29 PM
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From: On the way to a PR near you
Agreed, and who's the joker that left in a joker?
10-26-2013 | 10:15 PM
#9
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From: New Jersey
Apparently that was part of the "fun changes" they made for the event. Worked for me! .... I have been trying for 10 years to win one of those dam eagle trophies! I was at my friend Charlie's house that weekend before I won and he had four of them behind the bar staring at me!
On a side note, hats off to the PRA crew for a really nice event that was actually quite reasonable. We really had a good time!
On a side note, hats off to the PRA crew for a really nice event that was actually quite reasonable. We really had a good time!
