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Originally Posted by apache727
(Post 3137721)
Good question I'd like to know as well.
And this reallllly bothers me http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010...s-republicans/ Since every Gulf state is suffering one way or another from the spill let's pass cap and trade and raise thier taxes :angry-smiley-038: "If my house is on fire, I don't need the fire chief telling me I should not have built the house out of wood. I need somebody to put the fire out," Republican Alabama Gov. Bob Riley |
Unstoppable???
Originally Posted by Neverfastenuf
(Post 3137597)
I am sure someone, somewhere has that calculated. Very good question, for sure. I would think a subsurface casing breech would be of the utmost concern. I Pray that does not manifest it self in reality.
Sam from the article (via The Oil Drum): "What is likely to happen now? "Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner. "Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us. "All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all. |
I really hope there will be no hurricanes in the Gulf this year. Think about what even a Cat1 storm will do to push all that oil onto land. :(
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Originally Posted by Catmando
(Post 3137622)
To show how wrong the documents are they had procedures for saving walruses. Yes, walruses in the Gulf.
Almost like the Jamaican bobsled team. :lolhit: The problem for most of the fishermen is that they do so much business in cash. That is going to bite them big time now because as they look to BP to pay for things they are going to find out quickly that BP is going to want tax returns to back up their claims..... |
Originally Posted by jayboat
(Post 3138090)
It is beginning to look like that is exactly what is happening.
from the article (via The Oil Drum): "What is likely to happen now? "Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner. "Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us. "All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all. That is EXACTLY correct. Unless the relief wells get there first and relieve some of the pressure..We hope.... This is a HUGE disaster. They keep trying to downplay it but it is an Incredible disaster |
Last night they closed the Destin pass, it will open when the tide turns. Not sure how much this will help as they were saying oil plumes made it into Pcola because its sinking during the hot part of the day and rising to the asurface at night, going right under the booms. I knew the booms werent going to solve this epic carnage. Hell they really didnt even have much of a plan in place and now, almost 2 months later, oh oh you mean there is oil here now...wtf
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that pic ^^ is worth 20 billion words...
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Originally Posted by birdog
(Post 3138257)
That is EXACTLY correct. Unless the relief wells get there first
and relieve some of the pressure..We hope.... This is a HUGE disaster. They keep trying to downplay it but it is an Incredible disaster |
Originally Posted by DollaBill
(Post 3138340)
So "they" are saying that the area above the well will fracture and we'll be dealing with a "mile longish" crack that seeps oil?? Is that what I'm reading. Forgive me for asking dumb questions. Oil isnt one of my specialties LOL
Bill, follow that link in post 511 and it will give you an overview. The sand in the oil, and the oil, is eroding the well casing and the surrounding seabed. At some point the well pipe will be ejected from the hole and then... ??? Man, I hope they get that relief well there in time. http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.co...d409970b-800wi |
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