Got that right Troutly! The track remains unchanged from my last post. At least my house is up much higher (17.5' above mean high) than most houses here along the oceanfront. And the city just completed a million dollar hurricane protection project and built a new boardwalk/seawall and beach. Still.....I am scared s**tless. Please go by out to sea!!
Best of luck to everyone it her path. |
Great pics, Troutly.
Well, it looks for the time being that the very southeast has been spared. However, I fear for those in the NC/VA area. Looks like the Chesapeake will take a direct hit by the latest estimates. Remember, they're just estimates, but looks like it's time to prepare. -------------------------------------- 000 WTNT33 KNHC 151429 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON SEP 15 2003 ...ISABEL SLOWS AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 505 MILES...815 KM...EAST OF NASSAU. ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.2 N... 69.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
Here's the 11:00am Discussion Update. Looks like it will be on Cape Hatteras in 72 hours, and will be a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3.
Hurricane Isabel Discussion Number 38 Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 15, 2003 satellite imagery indicates that the inner core structure continues to break down...with a less well-defined eye in visible imagery. Eyewall convection has become asymmetric and fragmented...and the overall convective structure is now more banded than it was over the past couple of days. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are 115 kt. The advisory intensity is lowered to 120 kt and another reconnaissance aircraft will be in the hurricane at 18z. The initial motion is 300/7...slower than before. With the mid-level short wave off the Carolinas moving out to the northeast...the steering currents surrounding Isabel are beginning to weaken as some ridging temporarily builds in northwest...ahead of...the hurricane. This should result in a slow motion to the northwest over the next day or two. By 48 hours or so...an approaching trough from the west will help accelerate Isabel north-northwestward around the west side of the deep-layer ridge anchored near 35n and 60 W. Model guidance is in excellent agreement on this track although the GFS is considerably slower than the other models. Very little change has been made to the official forecast track...which is very close to the GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...GFS model consensus. Although there has been some restriction of the outflow in the southwest quadrant...the current weakening may be more a result of less favorable environmental thermodynamics. There are westerlies to the north of Isabel...but the shear is expected to be light for the next 36 hours or so. There will be plenty of warm water under the hurricane until cooler shelf waters are encountered right along the coastline. One key to the ultimate landfall intensity will be the evolution of an upper-level trough that could enhance the outflow and reduce the shear prior to landfall if it digs as sharply as forecast by the GFS. With this in mind...Isabel could still be a major hurricane at landfall. Forecaster Franklin forecast positions and Max winds initial 15/1500z 25.2n 69.4w 120 kt 12hr VT 16/0000z 25.8n 70.3w 115 kt 24hr VT 16/1200z 27.0n 71.2w 115 kt 36hr VT 17/0000z 28.2n 72.0w 115 kt 48hr VT 17/1200z 30.0n 73.0w 115 kt 72hr VT 18/1200z 34.5n 75.5w 110 kt 96hr VT 19/1200z 40.0n 78.0w 60 kt...inland 120hr VT 20/1200z 49.5n 80.0w 30 kt...extratropical |
TTT
The tracking chart under Baja Daze's first post is one of the best I have found. I like the way it updates regularly. (How did you do that anyway?) Let's hope she keeps losing steam! :( |
I hear ya Macklin! Living one block from the Bay looking North is going to be scarry enough!
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Originally posted by Macklin TTT The tracking chart under Baja Daze's first post is one of the best I have found. I like the way it updates regularly. (How did you do that anyway?) Let's hope she keeps losing steam! :( I just posted a pic from another site using the IMG code. It looks like this, just without the spaces: [ IMG]http://www.place_the_pic_link_here[ /IMG] or you can use the "IMG" button when you post. I just happened to get lucky and find a link to a chart that the author of the site updates regularly, using the same link. :cool: |
I found a good site with some real up to date accurate info and images.
www.boatus.com/hurricanes |
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Go away! Izzy! :hothead:
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Wow!
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