Pat D

Lonestar - you'll know the answer to that question after this coming weekend. Depends on where it makes land.
I just heard that schools in keys will be closed this thurs. & fri.

BBB........great location.......you will also know if it's still great after this weekend. (only kidding) That has been a favorite spot of ours, we're here full-time.......18 years last week.....(long enough for me) (not kidding)

scottc

now watchout


000
WTNT34 KNHC 181755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO WILMA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES... 290 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...12 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

kitten

Ho many hurricane threads do we need?

Good luck everyone.

CigDaze

175mph!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



From a T.S. to a 175mph cat 5 in less than 24 hours.

scottc

000
Wtnt44 Knhc 190841
Tcdat4
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 16
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Wed Oct 19 2005

In Addition To The Spectacular Cloud Pattern Observed On Satellite
...an Air Force Reconnaissance Plane Measured 168 Knots At 700 Mb
And Estimated A Minimum Pressure Of 884 Mb Extrapolated From 700mb.
Unofficially...the Meteorologist On Board The Plane Relied An
Extrapolated 881 Mb Pressure And Measured 884 Mb With A Dropsonde.
This Is All In Association With A Very Small Eye That Has Been
Oscillating Between 2 And 4 N Mi During Eye Penetrations. This Is
Probably The Lowest Minimum Pressure Ever Observed In The Atlantic
Basin And Is Followed By The 888 Mb Minimum Pressure Associated
With Hurricane Gilbert In 1988. However...one Must Be Very Careful
Before It Is Declared A Record Minimum Pressure Until A Full And
Detailed Calibration Of The Instruments And Calculations Is
Performed. So Please Do Not Jump Into Conclusions Yet...be Patient.

Wilma Is A Catastrophic Category Five Hurricane That Is Moving Over
Very Warm Waters...typical Of The Northwestern Caribbean Sea...and
Within An Environment Of Light Shear. However...despite The
Favorable Large Scale Environment...wilma Is Near Its Maximum
Potential Intensity And Further Strengthening Is Not Anticipated.
Most Likely...the Small Eye Will Collapse Followed By Slight
Weakening Or Some Fluctuations In Intensity. Eyewall Replacement
Cycles Will Likely Control The Intensity For The Next 2 To 3 Days
While The Hurricane Is Over The Northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter...once Wilma Reaches The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico And
Encounters The Westerlies And High Shear...weakening Should Begin.

The Hurricane Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Or 295 Degrees At
7 Knots. It Seems That Data From The High Altitude Noaa Jet
Ingested By Models Caused The Track Guidance Envelope To Shift
Slightly Westward For The 2 To 3 Day Period. However...no Change In
Track Is Indicated Over The Gulf Of Mexico And Guidance Continues
To Turn Wilma Sharply To The Northeast Over Florida. Based On The
Latest Guidance...the Official Track Forecast Has Been Shifted
Slightly Westward But Is Kept On The Eastern Side Of The Envelope.
This In Case The Track Guidance Shifts Back To The East In The Next
Run.

In Summary...the Official Forecast Brings The Core Of This
Catastrophic Hurricane Northward Through The Yucatan Channel And
Then Sharply Turns A Weaker Hurricane To The Northeast Toward
Florida With An Increase In Forward Speed. No Change In Warnings
Or Watches Is Required At This Time.

Forecaster Avila


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 19/0900z 17.2n 82.5w 150 Kt
12hr Vt 19/1800z 17.7n 83.4w 150 Kt
24hr Vt 20/0600z 18.5n 84.7w 145 Kt
36hr Vt 20/1800z 20.0n 85.5w 140 Kt
48hr Vt 21/0600z 21.0n 85.7w 130 Kt
72hr Vt 22/0600z 22.5n 86.0w 115 Kt
96hr Vt 23/0600z 26.5n 81.0w 90 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 24/0600z 33.0n 72.0w 70 Kt

Formula Outlaw

This is just getting better and better.....

DJD

I was supposed to leave tomorrow to run the Bertram down to FL. I think I'll wait a week

Pat D

Good idea David.
BTW.....thanks for your help in NYC, much appreciated.
(Wish I was there now instead of "preparing" once again.)
Are you coming to KW?
Pat

kitten

OMG

Here we go again.

Iggy

Checked the National Data Buoy Center. There's one buoy that's a little north east of the storm and it is reporting 18'-20' seas. Wind is nowhere near huricane strength.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pag...&unit=E&tz=CST