Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

What have we here? Looks like something we need to keep an eye on.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...083849W_sm.gif

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

And I thought i wouldn't have pull out my storm shutters this year.
If that AccuWeather forcast is even close to correct we'll have to keep and eye on this. The National Hurricane Center isn't predicting any path beyond Wednesday.

Thanks.....I think.

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Ya, accuweather is kind of stretching it in terms of forecasting that far ahead, but if it's any consolation, their 7-day forecast for Katrina and Rita were about 20 miles off. :eek: :(

This isn't looking good at all.

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Holly Chit, we're on "W" this year! :eek:

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

That is the last letter for the year I think the next storm is Alpha

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Crap!!! My Mom and sister are going to Fla. for 2 weeks ...leaving next saturday!!! Pompano, Keys then up to Orlando towards the end of there 2 weeks there. Hope Wilma falls apart for all those involved or in her path!!

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

You're right BBB.

BTW, Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is already churning in the Atlantic at 35mph....a few more hours to a day and we may have T.S. ALPHA!
:eek:

I always wondered why they stopped at W.
There are a bunch of X, Y, and Z names.
http://www.babynames.com/Names/X/
http://www.babynames.com/Names/Y/
http://www.babynames.com/Names/Z/

What's wrong with Hurricane Yaakov?
:D :D :D

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Track's shifting all over the place during the course of the day. Where it goes, nobody knows. :(

Decision day for us is Thursday. Fingers crossed, I hope it just disolves into nothing.

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Cig..

Lets hope it does not go our way or to the north.

marc

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

I'm calling my mom and dad right now to tell them to head this way Wednesday if there is any doubt if it will hit the Tampa Bay area.

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Should be interesting. Im headed for Tampa on Sunday.

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

aint this a b i t c h :mad: :mad: :mad:

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

thought i heard somewhere that if it does make it to alpha, beta and so on. it will be the first time in history. anybody verify that?

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

this sucks !

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

What a year! :(
Dan

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

I think your right, I heard something about that since they started naming storms the most in any one year was 21. Wilma is #21 which ties that mark. Prayers in advance for anyone affected by this storm.

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Our weather guy said tonight that the last 21 storm year was like 1921 or so and they didn't have satellites, weather planes, etc. Since some of the storms this year stayed at sea and only lasted a few days they wouldn't have known about those. So the old record may have had a few more that they didn't see. Either way it has been a rough year and we can only hope that no more serious storms will occur. OTOH my Mom's name was Wilma and she could be pretty rough when she was pissed-let's hope she's in a good mood :D

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Current projected track....... :eek:

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Latest projection this morning has it turning and coming ashore in Naples, just below Ft. Myers as a Category 2 storm.

Let's hope it keeps going southwest.......

This storm crap is just so far past old.....:blaster:

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

This year will tie 1933 for the most storms on record for the 150 years that have been recorded. But how accurate could they have been for the first 100 years. The Keys have seen enough rain and wind this season, do not want any more.

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

She's now officially Hurricane Wilma! :( Weather channel is saying that the direction as of right now is towards the Keys and Miami. Look out, guys!

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Here ya go :eek:

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS
FROM UW/CIMSS OF T4.5 SINCE 09Z. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. COLD CONVECTION IS
BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH. THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...BUT THE LARGE AND GROWING CIRCULATION OF WILMA SHOULD
BE ABLE TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS AIR FROM REACHING THE CORE. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF IT TO
WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION
NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

WILMA...THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...TIES THE RECORD FOR MOST
HURRICANES IN A SEASON SET IN 1969.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 16.5N 80.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 81.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.7N 82.3W 90 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 83.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 84.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 75 KT


$$
NNNN

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Look at the computer models on www.wunderground.com

shutters up, shutters down
shutters up, shutters down
shutters up........................enough already!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Pat D

Did you get my PMs??

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Pat D, where in the Keys are you? We have a place in Key Colony Beach MM 52

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Mark - yes........I will pm you again.

BBB......right up the street in Marathon.......gulfside....

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Stuff that brews trouble like that are accurately named after women...

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

sounds like a typical statement from a man in Vermont :p

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

What effect could this have on the Lauderdale Boat show?? Our prayers will be with those in the potentially effected areas :(

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Pat D
My house is next to the park on the west end of Ocean Drive getting close to finishing, should be in by Christmas. You full time resident?

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Lonestar - you'll know the answer to that question after this coming weekend. Depends on where it makes land.
I just heard that schools in keys will be closed this thurs. & fri.

BBB........great location.......you will also know if it's still great after this weekend. (only kidding) That has been a favorite spot of ours, we're here full-time.......18 years last week.....(long enough for me) (not kidding)

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

now watchout


000
WTNT34 KNHC 181755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO WILMA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES... 290 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...12 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Ho many hurricane threads do we need? :cool:

Good luck everyone.

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

175mph!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:eek: :eek:

From a T.S. to a 175mph cat 5 in less than 24 hours.

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

000
Wtnt44 Knhc 190841
Tcdat4
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 16
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Wed Oct 19 2005

In Addition To The Spectacular Cloud Pattern Observed On Satellite
...an Air Force Reconnaissance Plane Measured 168 Knots At 700 Mb
And Estimated A Minimum Pressure Of 884 Mb Extrapolated From 700mb.
Unofficially...the Meteorologist On Board The Plane Relied An
Extrapolated 881 Mb Pressure And Measured 884 Mb With A Dropsonde.
This Is All In Association With A Very Small Eye That Has Been
Oscillating Between 2 And 4 N Mi During Eye Penetrations. This Is
Probably The Lowest Minimum Pressure Ever Observed In The Atlantic
Basin And Is Followed By The 888 Mb Minimum Pressure Associated
With Hurricane Gilbert In 1988. However...one Must Be Very Careful
Before It Is Declared A Record Minimum Pressure Until A Full And
Detailed Calibration Of The Instruments And Calculations Is
Performed. So Please Do Not Jump Into Conclusions Yet...be Patient.

Wilma Is A Catastrophic Category Five Hurricane That Is Moving Over
Very Warm Waters...typical Of The Northwestern Caribbean Sea...and
Within An Environment Of Light Shear. However...despite The
Favorable Large Scale Environment...wilma Is Near Its Maximum
Potential Intensity And Further Strengthening Is Not Anticipated.
Most Likely...the Small Eye Will Collapse Followed By Slight
Weakening Or Some Fluctuations In Intensity. Eyewall Replacement
Cycles Will Likely Control The Intensity For The Next 2 To 3 Days
While The Hurricane Is Over The Northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter...once Wilma Reaches The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico And
Encounters The Westerlies And High Shear...weakening Should Begin.

The Hurricane Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Or 295 Degrees At
7 Knots. It Seems That Data From The High Altitude Noaa Jet
Ingested By Models Caused The Track Guidance Envelope To Shift
Slightly Westward For The 2 To 3 Day Period. However...no Change In
Track Is Indicated Over The Gulf Of Mexico And Guidance Continues
To Turn Wilma Sharply To The Northeast Over Florida. Based On The
Latest Guidance...the Official Track Forecast Has Been Shifted
Slightly Westward But Is Kept On The Eastern Side Of The Envelope.
This In Case The Track Guidance Shifts Back To The East In The Next
Run.

In Summary...the Official Forecast Brings The Core Of This
Catastrophic Hurricane Northward Through The Yucatan Channel And
Then Sharply Turns A Weaker Hurricane To The Northeast Toward
Florida With An Increase In Forward Speed. No Change In Warnings
Or Watches Is Required At This Time.

Forecaster Avila


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 19/0900z 17.2n 82.5w 150 Kt
12hr Vt 19/1800z 17.7n 83.4w 150 Kt
24hr Vt 20/0600z 18.5n 84.7w 145 Kt
36hr Vt 20/1800z 20.0n 85.5w 140 Kt
48hr Vt 21/0600z 21.0n 85.7w 130 Kt
72hr Vt 22/0600z 22.5n 86.0w 115 Kt
96hr Vt 23/0600z 26.5n 81.0w 90 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 24/0600z 33.0n 72.0w 70 Kt

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

This is just getting better and better.....:blaster:

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

I was supposed to leave tomorrow to run the Bertram down to FL. I think I'll wait a week

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Good idea David.
BTW.....thanks for your help in NYC, much appreciated.
(Wish I was there now instead of "preparing" once again.)
Are you coming to KW?
Pat

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

OMG :mad:

Here we go again.

Re: Wilma! Uh-oh!!!
 

Checked the National Data Buoy Center. There's one buoy that's a little north east of the storm and it is reporting 18'-20' seas. Wind is nowhere near huricane strength.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pag...&unit=E&tz=CST