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wjb21ndtown 05-25-2010 04:18 PM


Originally Posted by isellpower (Post 3119614)
I'm an energy trader and deal with mostly large companies. The trouble they are having is crazy. The companies that are doing ok are the ones that have slashed costs. This only works for a quarter or two and then the 50% drop in revenue catches up to them. Before we sign a long term contact with someone we look at their annual as well as quarterly reports, it is shocking to see what is happening to some of these once filthy rich companies. Anyone that thinks prices are going up is probably mistaken. I was going to buy a Gladiator for around a 100K, but now I'm gun shy. We have been looking at a bigger condo at LOTO, but it seems weekly there are 20 more with huge price drops from just moths before. It's gonna get ugly.....

I see used boat prices (1985-1999ish) prices rising some and boats coming off of the market that have been on the market for two years. Boats for sale for the last two seasons are being priced $2-3K more than they were in the past and they're selling. People generally seem more willing to come off of their money right now while we're riding the peak of this "rebound."

I don't think that this rings true for $100K + boats. I've seen them drop in value as well.

I feel all of that is going to go down the toilet when things get as bad as they were last year (or worse). It's going to be an odd cycle when the DAQ is usually high right now and its in the tank instead.

As for energy prices and strength of business, that's scary.

wjb21ndtown 05-25-2010 04:20 PM


Originally Posted by Audiofn (Post 3119599)
Things are not going to get well for a very long time IMO. The problem is that the printing of money has stopped and now the market is reponding. Add to that all the uncertaintee in europe. It is going to be up and down for a while. The banks don't want to lend and even with the very very low interest rates we are seeing this week not many qualify for these rates. I don't see prices on new stuff dropping much but the used market is still flooded. I was driving around the other day thinking wow there are a LOT of boats for sale on the side of the roads.

IMO it's a good thing that the printing press has stopped for a while. This country needs to spend less not more. We just have to get the govt. on board with all of this. They're still operating under the belief that you can spend your way out of debt, and dig yourself out of a hole...

My issue, however, is that banks won't write notes that should be almost guaranteed! I don't get it!... When I recently wanted to buy an investment property. I could afford to pay for it in cash, but I didn't want to wear myself thin. I was going to buy an already foreclosed property, put 50% down on it, and they still wouldn't lend on the property... reason being... the final loan amount was too small. That doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever... They didn't want to write any loan below $50k regardless as to how much cash someone wanted to put down on the property.

DollaBill 05-25-2010 04:38 PM

lending standrds are really nuts. I started a post about how my ex is looking for a mortgage and cant get one because she bought a business as an asset sale instead of a stock sales (the only smartthing to do) and now b/c it's a new corp she doesnt have tax returns for 2 years. The business has been profitable for 17 years. Prior to her buying that biz her and I had a very successful biz together for over 10 years. It's a no-brainer. 20% down, 1.1m appraisal on the home. Bank short sale at 750K. she's got a 750 beacon and less than 40% dti. crazy she can't get approved.

Audiofn 05-25-2010 04:53 PM


Originally Posted by wjb21ndtown (Post 3119623)
IMO it's a good thing that the printing press has stopped for a while. This country needs to spend less not more. We just have to get the govt. on board with all of this. They're still operating under the belief that you can spend your way out of debt, and dig yourself out of a hole...

My issue, however, is that banks won't write notes that should be almost guaranteed! I don't get it!... When I recently wanted to buy an investment property. I could afford to pay for it in cash, but I didn't want to wear myself thin. I was going to buy an already foreclosed property, put 50% down on it, and they still wouldn't lend on the property... reason being... the final loan amount was too small. That doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever... They didn't want to write any loan below $50k regardless as to how much cash someone wanted to put down on the property.

I agree but my fear is that because of all the printed money, the only choice that we have is when the economy starts to rebound we are headed for massive inflation. Not like they can do much with rates now they are basically at zero.

ActiveThunder 05-25-2010 06:48 PM

New boat sales increase, best case scenario: 2012.

An increase would not be over 2008 or 09. Every other prediction is smoke and mirrors.

DollaBill 05-25-2010 06:50 PM


Originally Posted by ActiveThunder (Post 3119691)
New boat sales increase, best case scenario: 2012.

An increase would not be over 2008 or 09. Every other prediction is smoke and mirrors.

The levels of '01 through 07 will never be seen again. ever. I see the perf segment reaching 25% of the last peak and the rest of the industry 40-50%...maybe

ActiveThunder 05-25-2010 06:57 PM


Originally Posted by DollaBill (Post 3119693)
The levels of '01 through 07 will never be seen again. ever. I see the perf segment reaching 25% of the last peak and the rest of the industry 40-50%...maybe

Perhaps. But we said the exact same thing in the early 90s.

rlj676 05-25-2010 07:49 PM


Originally Posted by DollaBill (Post 3119693)
The levels of '01 through 07 will never be seen again. ever. I see the perf segment reaching 25% of the last peak and the rest of the industry 40-50%...maybe

Not if performance boating takes off in China!:party-smiley-004:

phragle 05-25-2010 08:35 PM


Originally Posted by ActiveThunder (Post 3119701)
Perhaps. But we said the exact same thing in the early 90s.

Yeah but we are kind of running out of things to bubble.... If gas and basic utilities go thru the roof again, a green bubble might start, but thats doubtfull

pm203 05-25-2010 09:03 PM

It is sad when MB sells more S class cars in China than the US. The point being is that we are in a losing battle that is gonna get worse. The US has been on the wrong path for quite some time.


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