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Old 05-25-2010, 11:59 AM
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I say that boats may have bottomed but could see another 10-30% over the next 2 years. Which brings me to the reason why..

I see real estate bottoming sometime in summer of 2012 and staying flat until approx 2016-2017-- as long as everything around the world turns around within the next 6-12 months
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Old 05-25-2010, 12:11 PM
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I am happy if I can figure out where the market will be at 4:00.I will have to give 2016 some thought.
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Old 05-25-2010, 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by DollaBill View Post
I say that boats may have bottomed but could see another 10-30% over the next 2 years. Which brings me to the reason why..

I see real estate bottoming sometime in summer of 2012 and staying flat until approx 2016-2017-- as long as everything around the world turns around within the next 6-12 months
Until the surplus inventory (leftovers, repos, etc.) are gone the values will still keep dropping. Tom/Omerta brought up a good point that some manufacturers have drastically cut production which will create somewhat of a shortage in the used market in upcoming years.

Used 2009-2010 boats might be tougher to come by than used 04-06's are now......

Real Estate......not sure but I just found out a builder I do work for just let a lot go to f/c in Jupiter. 1 acre waterfront sold for 1.2 in the high, bank repo'd it and has it listed for 900K yet the county values it at about 600K. It sold 10 years ago with two small houses on it for 180K, 8 years later guy sold it for 1.2mm. So if it has to roll back it is currently at the 600K mark (vacant, houses leveled) so it could slide lower. At the 500-600K range I think it is a good buy. Lot has ICW views,100 ft of frontage and a direct view of the lighthouse up the canal.
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Old 05-25-2010, 01:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DollaBill View Post
I say that boats may have bottomed but could see another 10-30% over the next 2 years. Which brings me to the reason why..

I see real estate bottoming sometime in summer of 2012 and staying flat until approx 2016-2017-- as long as everything around the world turns around within the next 6-12 months
If you are talking Florida RE I agree and I think you are real close but I am optimistic by 6-12 months on the 2016-17 prediction. But, nationally some places like Atlanta are doing pretty well. I was a builder there till the recent downturn and live in Florida now so you probably know the result of my Atlanta business... Most of my buddies in Atlanta are SLAMMED right now with numerous $50K to $300K renovations.

I read last week in the WSJ that the economy in general is quite bad (no shiit) and possibly just a phase of a 2-3 downturns. The most recent only being the first "phase". Dont forget they still expect another wave of foreclosures this fall...
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Old 05-25-2010, 01:46 PM
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Acutally I think used boat prices are rising. A number of boat dealers I have talked with told me that used boats are going up in value as the repo market is drying up. I also just spoke to a very large luxury car dealer yesterday who told me the same thing about used cars. They sell 400 cars a month and half were used. He told me they almost never needed to go to auctions to buy cars and lately they are just to get inventory.
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Old 05-25-2010, 01:53 PM
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I pulled all of my retirement savings out of the S&P early last week. What I had in there would have dropped by 30K since then. I don't know what to do at this point, so I will just leave it in a no risk area until it stabilizes or starts to come back.
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Old 05-25-2010, 02:48 PM
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I'm no expert so I could be way off base. But I think it all depends on lending. If lending stays tight, boats, RE and everything that is generally financed will be slow. Once lending comes back, so will the buying. Granted the buying won't come back like it was before, because in my opinion it was artificial. People were spending (borrowing) money that wasn’t there. But I could be completely wrong too.
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:15 PM
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Here is my 2 cents. realestate and boats and cars will continue to drop as long as unemployment continues to increase and will not turn around until a few years after people have jobs again. I don't understand how the news can say we are out of the woods when we are still loosing jobs every day. People cannot buy anything without a job!!!!!!

Maybe I just look at it too simply
I generally agree with you.

I would add that while used boat prices are up over last year (and sales too!) the market right now is over-valued (even after getting its ass kicked in the last few weeks), and we will have more than one correction in the next year or two. I think that things are going to get worse, to the point where people are going to be losing boats to the bank, selling them to afford necessities, and selling them in a mild panic before they get better in any sort of real or solid basis.

While we're in that selling "mode" prices aren't going to rise anytime soon. Add to that the fact that banks have tightened up their lending practices creating less buyers, and you have a bad boat and real estate market for the next 2-3 years, easy.

Last edited by wjb21ndtown; 05-25-2010 at 03:31 PM.
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:47 PM
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Default boat prices

boat prices will probley keep dropping,but if the banks dont want to lend,then it will be a cash market.i am trying to get out of my 27 fountain,and into a 38.i was turned down today not because of credit,or down payment,but because of the type of boat.plucking crazy.50k note,w/20k down,excelent credit,12yr old boat and they said too old and the risk factor was high.......the same company did the note on the boat i own now w/nothing down,4yr ago,now this.looks like a cash market to me.
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Old 05-25-2010, 04:05 PM
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One of the problems are the banks dont
want to lend money on boats,if they would
the sales would go up like crazy.
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