OT: My two cents on the current Stock Market.
07-18-2002, 11:21 AM
#13
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Uncle Toys:
Great Post. Being in the business for over 25 years myself, I do agree with you that the market (which consists of all investors and traders) is mentally ill just as it was in 1999 and early 2000 when there was the consensus that the sky was the limit.
I have shared your thoughts with other brokers in my office. As I am sure you are aware, the major brokerage firms to not stress enough the value of buying and holding investments through market cycles.
Please continue to add your views on investments in the future.
Larry
Great Post. Being in the business for over 25 years myself, I do agree with you that the market (which consists of all investors and traders) is mentally ill just as it was in 1999 and early 2000 when there was the consensus that the sky was the limit.
I have shared your thoughts with other brokers in my office. As I am sure you are aware, the major brokerage firms to not stress enough the value of buying and holding investments through market cycles.
Please continue to add your views on investments in the future.
Larry
07-18-2002, 11:23 AM
#14
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UT,
Well put.
I'm one of those "MBA's" and went to school for this. I'm totally turned off by the markets now. Too many things have changed. With the last spike in the market, more than ever before was that derived off expectation based on IDEAS. I've never seen anything like that. The biggest scam in my OPP of late is creating a company and going public, cashing out and getting out of it with wealth, and many of them based on ideas alone, and nothing of value there in place. Just ideas. This makes only 1 or 2 people wealthy. All the dotcoms, plus there are other non dotcoms involved. It seems to me about 90% of the dot com thing was investors putting money in based on the expectations off the ideas of the company managers. Even before Enron and the likes. What you have to remember, is, when it's not [all] your money, you'll run a company differently (legit mind you, but you take more chances you otherwise would not).
The market is a business. There is a system. The SEC is not keeping up in my opp. A guy can make a company, go public, run it out, go back into something else "creatively", sell stock, run it into the ground etc. Mutual fund investers invest retirement funds into investments the people with the money don't even know about or understand. So, many don't even know what they're invested in.
Then, there is the ol' e-trade, etc deal. This gives some people without any knowledge of what they are doing the power to run up those expectations based on principles nobody but them understand.
It's become more of a game to me. less controlled, more people jumping on the bandwagon and doing things on-line. Then entrepeneurs sell a concept or idea to a few and BAM!. They win.
I've now forgotten most of what I knew as my education has long passed and my desire to keep reading up has been stifled.
I'm happy with my own private company (an internet based company, but we run it like a guy starting a company 50 years ago would, the old fashioned way, not the new "superbowl commercial" with other people's money way) and intend on starting another soon.
I feel for those that have lost so much in these recent times. But, remember, you also gained when the market went from 4,000 to 10,000, (and in my opp, should be around 6,000 right now if it followed normal, untainted trends.
I was recently educated on a local company that is now out of business. It's amazing how it operated. It went well when the guys ran it privately, but some other investors bought out part of it. It was then run into the ground. It wasn't "their" money anymore, so the financial care went down the tubes. Other things happened, like work done on personal residences that found it's way on the commercial buildings tab's total bill. Things like that do happen.
Remember, all, just buy boats, you'll lose less money. Just kidding, but I had to get a boat reference in there somewhere.
This is just my $.02. For the record, I haven't changed my investment philosophy. I'm a buy and hold kinda guy. It will come back, I'll ride it out.
Like UT said, you have to treat investing just like a business. The numbers are there for all of us to use. Many are using those same numbers in countless other ways.
Can anyone tell me how far the dow, nasdaq and amex will go down before they start going up, and how far they will go up? And will they go down again after, and when will that happen? Thanks!
Mark
Well put.
I'm one of those "MBA's" and went to school for this. I'm totally turned off by the markets now. Too many things have changed. With the last spike in the market, more than ever before was that derived off expectation based on IDEAS. I've never seen anything like that. The biggest scam in my OPP of late is creating a company and going public, cashing out and getting out of it with wealth, and many of them based on ideas alone, and nothing of value there in place. Just ideas. This makes only 1 or 2 people wealthy. All the dotcoms, plus there are other non dotcoms involved. It seems to me about 90% of the dot com thing was investors putting money in based on the expectations off the ideas of the company managers. Even before Enron and the likes. What you have to remember, is, when it's not [all] your money, you'll run a company differently (legit mind you, but you take more chances you otherwise would not).
The market is a business. There is a system. The SEC is not keeping up in my opp. A guy can make a company, go public, run it out, go back into something else "creatively", sell stock, run it into the ground etc. Mutual fund investers invest retirement funds into investments the people with the money don't even know about or understand. So, many don't even know what they're invested in.
Then, there is the ol' e-trade, etc deal. This gives some people without any knowledge of what they are doing the power to run up those expectations based on principles nobody but them understand.
It's become more of a game to me. less controlled, more people jumping on the bandwagon and doing things on-line. Then entrepeneurs sell a concept or idea to a few and BAM!. They win.
I've now forgotten most of what I knew as my education has long passed and my desire to keep reading up has been stifled.
I'm happy with my own private company (an internet based company, but we run it like a guy starting a company 50 years ago would, the old fashioned way, not the new "superbowl commercial" with other people's money way) and intend on starting another soon.
I feel for those that have lost so much in these recent times. But, remember, you also gained when the market went from 4,000 to 10,000, (and in my opp, should be around 6,000 right now if it followed normal, untainted trends.
I was recently educated on a local company that is now out of business. It's amazing how it operated. It went well when the guys ran it privately, but some other investors bought out part of it. It was then run into the ground. It wasn't "their" money anymore, so the financial care went down the tubes. Other things happened, like work done on personal residences that found it's way on the commercial buildings tab's total bill. Things like that do happen.
Remember, all, just buy boats, you'll lose less money. Just kidding, but I had to get a boat reference in there somewhere.
This is just my $.02. For the record, I haven't changed my investment philosophy. I'm a buy and hold kinda guy. It will come back, I'll ride it out.
Like UT said, you have to treat investing just like a business. The numbers are there for all of us to use. Many are using those same numbers in countless other ways.
Can anyone tell me how far the dow, nasdaq and amex will go down before they start going up, and how far they will go up? And will they go down again after, and when will that happen? Thanks!
Mark
07-18-2002, 11:32 AM
#15
VIP Member
actually uncle toys i researched my advisor and the fund manager rather than the stocks that are in it. they both both have a long and consistant record. and your right, there is nothing in a monthly statemant that i think will help me. i did my home work before i got into it, now its up to them.
also i was kinda luckey , i knew my advisor from working on his boat so i knew him on a personal level and trust him.
also i was kinda luckey , i knew my advisor from working on his boat so i knew him on a personal level and trust him.
07-18-2002, 02:25 PM
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Uncle Toys and Shane.
I am constantly amazed that my oso buddies do have other lives, and insights other then boats. I’m impressed. The truth is you two guys are absolutely correct, (not that either of you need me to say that) your success in your chosen field speak volumes. The only Stocks I have that are solid and profitable are the ones that I have bought and pretty much ignored. Sure they are down from their 52-week highs, but what isn’t? I would never think of selling these stocks. One of them I buy on a monthly basis, (auto buy) no matter what the price is at the end of the month. I consider these “Investments” everything else is gambling! If I were going to gamble I would rather go to Atlantic City. That is much more fun, the cocktail waitresses are better looking then my stock broker, and they give you rooms, dinner, etc. for free. I am sure the Cocktail Waitress that allowed me to make a fool out of myself on my last trip, is better looking then both of you guys. I am constantly amazed at business owners, and myself, that will explore every facet before buying a piece of machinery, a car, boat, etc. but will spend thousand’s of dollars on what I call “Bar” stocks on their friends say so. You know, the Stock they heard at the local Bar. Well Joe, Bob or whatever said, and I quote “She is going through the roof”. My question is, what is making “her go thru the roof” I have quite a few of worthless certificates that went into the basement. One of these companies has 130 employees, and only $800.000 of total sales this year, BTW they lost $25,000,000.
This year. Not exactly a shooting star. You guys are right! Investing is different then Gambling.
Philip
I am constantly amazed that my oso buddies do have other lives, and insights other then boats. I’m impressed. The truth is you two guys are absolutely correct, (not that either of you need me to say that) your success in your chosen field speak volumes. The only Stocks I have that are solid and profitable are the ones that I have bought and pretty much ignored. Sure they are down from their 52-week highs, but what isn’t? I would never think of selling these stocks. One of them I buy on a monthly basis, (auto buy) no matter what the price is at the end of the month. I consider these “Investments” everything else is gambling! If I were going to gamble I would rather go to Atlantic City. That is much more fun, the cocktail waitresses are better looking then my stock broker, and they give you rooms, dinner, etc. for free. I am sure the Cocktail Waitress that allowed me to make a fool out of myself on my last trip, is better looking then both of you guys. I am constantly amazed at business owners, and myself, that will explore every facet before buying a piece of machinery, a car, boat, etc. but will spend thousand’s of dollars on what I call “Bar” stocks on their friends say so. You know, the Stock they heard at the local Bar. Well Joe, Bob or whatever said, and I quote “She is going through the roof”. My question is, what is making “her go thru the roof” I have quite a few of worthless certificates that went into the basement. One of these companies has 130 employees, and only $800.000 of total sales this year, BTW they lost $25,000,000.
This year. Not exactly a shooting star. You guys are right! Investing is different then Gambling.
Philip
07-18-2002, 02:38 PM
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If I wasn't in the investment world, the only other place I would consider working is as a developer in SmokeRise!
One more thing Philip, if you would have said that either myself or UT were better looking than the cocktail waitress I would have had Kim call me!
Sorry we didn't get more time last weekend. When are you guys coming to LG?
One more thing Philip, if you would have said that either myself or UT were better looking than the cocktail waitress I would have had Kim call me! Sorry we didn't get more time last weekend. When are you guys coming to LG?
