Market Analysis Game.......500K to spend
08-12-2014, 08:33 AM
#81
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08-12-2014, 10:15 AM
#82
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You are correct on all counts. The thought behind the resale/keep the money was keeping the game somewhat reality based (reality as how it fits in that person's life). The thought process was to see what people would buy given a sizable budget. The shocker for me was the lack of new boats. For the guys that "always buy used" it presents a two fold problem in reality: 1. There won't be many used boats in the near future if people don't buy new ones now and 2. If the problem really persists then there won't be any new boats either (out of business).
Years ago, Tommy Gun made a comment that there will be a shortage of nice used boats in the future due to the lack of production 2009-2012 so there will be a premium on clean used inventory in the future. Not only was he right but it is still happening. Look at 2003-2006 boats now, there are a ton of them from every brand. Fast forward and try to find those same models in 2008-2011 model years and you will be hard pressed to find anything. So what will you find in say 2015-17 for 2-3 year old inventory?
Years ago, Tommy Gun made a comment that there will be a shortage of nice used boats in the future due to the lack of production 2009-2012 so there will be a premium on clean used inventory in the future. Not only was he right but it is still happening. Look at 2003-2006 boats now, there are a ton of them from every brand. Fast forward and try to find those same models in 2008-2011 model years and you will be hard pressed to find anything. So what will you find in say 2015-17 for 2-3 year old inventory?
One - There are very few new boats on this list because let's face it $500K doesn't buy a lot of "dream boat" these days. Some of the high end CC's are getting more than that. When you can get a million $ boat that is 3-5 years old for under $500k, that makes sense even in a fantasy world.
Two - The used market in 5 years will be very interesting as you have pointed out and there will be HUGE price variations on 10-15 year old boats. Two "identically" equipped 10 year old 38 Top Guns lets say may have a 30-40% value difference (and rightfully so) depending on how they were maintained. Some people will cry "oh well so an so's boat went for $ and this one at $$ is way too much"..... until you compare them and see that $ needs $$$ to make it as nice as $$.
08-12-2014, 10:34 AM
#83
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I agree with you and this is what I find very interesting.
One - There are very few new boats on this list because let's face it $500K doesn't buy a lot of "dream boat" these days. Some of the high end CC's are getting more than that. When you can get a million $ boat that is 3-5 years old for under $500k, that makes sense even in a fantasy world.
Two - The used market in 5 years will be very interesting as you have pointed out and there will be HUGE price variations on 10-15 year old boats. Two "identically" equipped 10 year old 38 Top Guns lets say may have a 30-40% value difference (and rightfully so) depending on how they were maintained. Some people will cry "oh well so an so's boat went for $ and this one at $$ is way too much"..... until you compare them and see that $ needs $$$ to make it as nice as $$.
One - There are very few new boats on this list because let's face it $500K doesn't buy a lot of "dream boat" these days. Some of the high end CC's are getting more than that. When you can get a million $ boat that is 3-5 years old for under $500k, that makes sense even in a fantasy world.
Two - The used market in 5 years will be very interesting as you have pointed out and there will be HUGE price variations on 10-15 year old boats. Two "identically" equipped 10 year old 38 Top Guns lets say may have a 30-40% value difference (and rightfully so) depending on how they were maintained. Some people will cry "oh well so an so's boat went for $ and this one at $$ is way too much"..... until you compare them and see that $ needs $$$ to make it as nice as $$.
08-12-2014, 11:50 AM
#84
08-12-2014, 04:09 PM
#86
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Trust me when I say NO ONE on this board is more keenly aware of how the used market is thin with quality and proud on price. I've passed up deals I should have taken and now I've got a higher budget and the options are far less worthy. I have watched another Summer come and go. Now I hang my hopes on what becomes available this winter. Again.
08-12-2014, 05:03 PM
#87
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Could it be people don't want to spend on this kind of toy. It really is throwing money away and you have to love it or You wont last long. Or the younger generation is just not that into it. With the price of a house, food ,upkeep family these days and the wages I think the younger generation is not into it. Look at cars. I always had muscle cars and v 8s, now a 4 cylinder is more desireable. I think the number of buyers are going down along with number of used boats. It may even out.
08-12-2014, 05:48 PM
#88
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Could it be people don't want to spend on this kind of toy. It really is throwing money away and you have to love it or You wont last long. Or the younger generation is just not that into it. With the price of a house, food ,upkeep family these days and the wages I think the younger generation is not into it. Look at cars. I always had muscle cars and v 8s, now a 4 cylinder is more desireable. I think the number of buyers are going down along with number of used boats. It may even out.
I know guys that sold big sportfishes and decided fishing wasn't worth the associated costs of having a big boat. Filling the tanks on some of them is $15,000 and you could burn that in a weekend! Plus slip fees, bottom cleaning, maintenance, captain/mates......I would consider these rich guys, the consensus was "been there, done that" and after 20-25 years of big boats they are out.
08-12-2014, 05:50 PM
#89
Registered
Thread Starter
Trust me when I say NO ONE on this board is more keenly aware of how the used market is thin with quality and proud on price. I've passed up deals I should have taken and now I've got a higher budget and the options are far less worthy. I have watched another Summer come and go. Now I hang my hopes on what becomes available this winter. Again.
