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Wish I had a crystal ball on this one.
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Originally Posted by TYPHOON
(Post 4729895)
Wish I had a crystal ball on this one.
When this is over (if ever) a lot of citizens will just want the basics. Will make the human appreciate basic things in life. |
Mines down, but I'm not dipping into it and don't plan for years, so no issue. If it comes back to 2016 levels all good, if it goes higher even better. My current loss is only on paper. No problem-o
Ford is at 4.27, Cummins at 120.92 so I'm still good |
Originally Posted by TYPHOON
(Post 4729895)
Wish I had a crystal ball on this one.
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Originally Posted by AllDodge
(Post 4729882)
How's all the buying low and short going
It worked out really well in 2008! |
Originally Posted by speicher lane
(Post 4729436)
The one's that are selling in a panic are those that are overextended with no reserve cash flow ....same as '08... This was not a hard nose dive so an investor only looses IF they sell.
I know 1 investor in the last crash that lost double digit Millions $ on paper but their liquid cash flow was more than sufficient to ride it out and came out on the end with ridiculous profits as he was still buying low when others were screwed - system recovers et voila! stocks tend to be like gambling, everyone loves to talk about the winners but not so much the losers. |
Originally Posted by Jupiter Sunsation
(Post 4729937)
or sellers were trying to keep some of their gain before it all went away! If you were in Tesla for a few hundred (peaked at 900+) and you sold on the first rough day for $650 then you still doubled your money despite the stock being down hundreds.
stocks tend to be like gambling, everyone loves to talk about the winners but not so much the losers. |
Disney
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Anyone have (not positive thoughts)?
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Originally Posted by Poker Face Xtreme
(Post 4729969)
Anyone have (not positive thoughts)?
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I'm going all in on this dip. Neither the bulls or the bears have a solid case, either side could easily lose. Me personally I'm buying UPRO/SPY (S&P 500 funds) at the lows in bulk and then filling in the gaps with DIS/JPM/AXP/FB and other quality companies that are unfairly beaten down.
I would avoid oil, automotive companies, namely Ford, and other non-growth stocks. Just because a "good company" is cheap right now doesn't mean you should always buy it. Look at some 2-5 year charts on stocks that are cheap right now. Either they're really not THAT cheap OR you're going to be waiting years for it to get back to the highs that you base the "lowness" off of. I know most of you will reply to that that you're long term and don't care but listen, if your money could be in an area or stock that recovers much faster that means much more money for you. Compounding is very real. Also, speculators will try to call stocks that will be positively effected by this like some of the stores, medical stocks, etc. but that can be risky business. You likely will pick a good winner and then a couple dogs and break even for years and years. Remember, well over 90% of traders, which includes the best funds of Wall Street, CANNOT beat the S&P 500 for more than a couple years. Do you think you know more than top hedge funds? Warren Buffet, the greatest stock picker of them all, tells everyone to buy S&P funds. |
Originally Posted by Thor39
(Post 4730013)
I
Remember, well over 90% of traders, which includes the best funds of Wall Street, CANNOT beat the S&P 500 for more than a couple years. Do you think you know more than top hedge funds? Warren Buffet, the greatest stock picker of them all, tells everyone to buy S&P funds. |
All mine and wife are in S&P and have been since the beginning. We have a joint small account (less then 100K) that we play with with every once in a while. This is where we bought Ford back in 08 along with Cummins. Hardly ever buy anything, and even much less sell from this account. Did do a "I guess" dumb move years ago and sold Walmart. Had 2K shares of it for more then 15 years and it never did a thing. Sold it and the next year it took off, go figure
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Originally Posted by 1960brookwood
(Post 4730077)
Buffet prefers VOO--and I'm back in @ S&P 2200--more pain coming IMHO
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Where/What are most of you using to buy stocks?
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Look into royal dutch shell
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Originally Posted by jmoore1225
(Post 4730118)
Where/What are most of you using to buy stocks?
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Originally Posted by Thor39
(Post 4730158)
As far as brokerages, I recommend and trade with TD Ameritrade (Which is in the process of merging with Charles Schwab).
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Originally Posted by Thor39
(Post 4730158)
As far as brokerages, I recommend and trade with TD Ameritrade (Which is in the process of merging with Charles Schwab).
Originally Posted by RSCHAP1
(Post 4730161)
Didn't know that... My Scott Trade became TD Ameritrade a while ago, and now another merger...
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I'm down 26% so far, but I don't plan to need anything till I retire in 25ish years so I'm not to worried about what it's doing at the moment. I'm still putting money in every month as normal.
I do have some money in robin hood that I play with and I'm buying index funds in there currently. |
Vanguard--You can get in for the cost of a single ETF share--If it good enough foe the Oracle of Omaha----
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Originally Posted by ben
(Post 4730209)
I'm down 26% so far, but I don't plan to need anything till I retire in 25ish years so I'm not to worried about what it's doing at the moment. I'm still putting money in every month as normal.
I do have some money in robin hood that I play with and I'm buying index funds in there currently. |
Let's not forget that during the "Great Recession" the stock market/S&P 500 sold off from pretty much August of 2007 until March of 2009 when it began to recover. If we're going to go through that, we're no where near the end.
However, so far we have dramatically dropped at a much faster rate that is pricing in very, very, very poor market conditions at current levels. If the market was logical in the least, it wouldn't have dropped half as much as it has, but we all know it isn't. Hold out and buy on the way down if you want to do 2008 all over again. VOO/SPY are your friends. I'm also mixing in some 3x leveraged ETFs at these ridiculous lows to dramatically increase my return but it's riskier. |
Dad always told me never bet more then you can afford to loose, its worked for me
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Airlines? Entertainment?
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Screw cheap stocks. Where are the cheap boats?
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Originally Posted by hogie roll
(Post 4730294)
Screw cheap stocks. Where are the cheap boats?
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And Here We are Today
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I was ready to put $10k into Royal Caribbean until the Mrs read up on them.
$3 billion in debt coming due and $3 billion in new ships under contract. I still like it though. I like Amazon too but will be interesting to see what happens w/their workers currently walking off their jobs. I was calling on a large trucking co who was servicing a new Amazon facility going into I think Kentucky. Said they bought the side of a mountain and are clearing if for a facility to accept loaded planes to taxi into for staging. The Trucking guys have been in the biz for 30+ yrs and had never seen biz like that or as strong as there’s was. Would also expect the liquor stores to be doing very well. I know I’m doing my part 👍🏻 |
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.off...e18a9e8b8.jpeg
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.off...864cf25c8.jpeg These are the soldiers I have sent into battle. My opinion is we hit bottom on the 18th and 19th but just incase I`m wrong still holding back some soldiers in reserve. REIT`s / preferred stocks have from 10%-19% dividends you can pick those up pretty cheap right now and enjoy the payouts and hope they refinance the debt , the regular stocks for me are a short term hold till they come back up .. If you check out the 5 year history on those it`s a steal. picked up MGM@$9.85 Royal Carrib @ $22.89 Delta @ $22. (buffet bought 12% recently) RLJ.PRA@ $11.66 PBF oil @$ 6.34 My credit union has Corona personal loans, no payments for 90 days , got some of their soldiers in the fight too. Nothing ventured nothing gained I guess. |
Crushed it on cruise lines today...shorted Norwegian and RCL...made a quick 20% on both of them.
bought utx and Disney on March 23...both in the 70 and 80’s picked up 15% on each. looking at my next moves as I type... |
My father always told me the old saying of never try and catch a falling knife. He was always more conservative than me. The market is gambling IMO.
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I was on a conference recently with Kevin O'Leary and several wealth managers...All of them were advocating buying in gradually during this downturn. Kevin especially was extremely aggressive, saying he has stopped most of his treasury investments and is transferring to securities. Bonds are uninteresting to him. He is moving to a more aggressive 70/30 or even 80/20 securities/treasuries allocation and expects the return to be very strong within the next 2 years or less. He gave 3 outlooks. Best case, worst case, and middle ground. Worst case was this goes until December and recovers then.
If you sit on the sidelines you'll lose nothing and also gain nothing. If you have some laying around, get in on some quality companies. My personal wealth advisor said this is the best buying opportunity he's seen in his lifetime. Many reasons behind all of this. |
Originally Posted by Thor39
(Post 4731752)
My personal wealth advisor said this is the best buying opportunity he's seen in his lifetime. Many reasons behind all of this.
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Same for 1987. If 87 and 08 repeat, we have a few more dips to go through before steady upturn resumes. Agree buying in steadily over upcoming months will be your friend.
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Sure, the same thing was said in 87, 2008, etc. and were they wrong? Nope. Those who bought at the lows gradually during those times made the most money (obviously). This will be no different.
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Need to find a cure or vaccine otherwise people will be afraid to re-emerge and spend. Will be a slow recovery. Eco damage is huge right now.
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My opinion...this is an ideal market to short trade stocks. There really is no downside especially if it’s money you can afford to sit on for 1-2 years. It’s not a question of if you will make money, but a when will you make money.
predicting the bottom is impossible...no one knows. I think too many people get caught up in that mentality. But as mentioned above, you can’t make money if you don’t have any money in the pot. Too many stand on the sidelines as the stocks go up. It’s worse to buy a surging stock than catch a falling knife. just my opinions. |
Below is a volume profile chart for S&P 500 (June) futures. Futures numbers will vary a bit from cash market. The high volume nodes (spikes on right) are areas where the market experienced acceptance of previous pricing levels and may behave like magnets or areas of interest.
We paused just south of the 2018 lows at the 2281 HVN (high volume node) on 3-10 and then visited and turned at the 2175 HVN (near pink line). 2050 is the next major area below (curser at 2047.50). Goldman called for S&P 2000 in recent Barron's issue prior to any rally in 3Q. Obviously no one knows for sure... Anyway some areas to think about- I don't have any data lower... apologies for the photo quality. Stay safe! https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.off...10eac0ec45.jpg |
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