Buy /Sell
 

With the state of the economy and everything costing more and investments tanking do you think people can keep there toy's and extra homes. Or will there be a massive sell off coming?

We just put a for sale sign on our 2008 350 Sundancer over the weekend (not because of the economy), going to list it officially the week of July 4th. We will be looking for something different again but not right away, maybe a smaller CC but will sit on our cash to see what else happens. Personally I think you will see a fair amount of people get more and more cautious and do the same but on the other-hand I also think those that have the money are still spending the money. I have noticed over the past month-6 weeks on my service drive that the normal people that come in and say "whatever it needs" are slowly starting to pick and chose the services they want.

my guess is all assets tank as economy cools. inventory of boats, RV’s, houses will increase.

Everyone I know is busy as they can be, companies can not keep up with the work etc. I would think if you own a 500K plus boat multiple home and what not it really doesn't matter. Like always the middle will be hardest hit, poor is always poor, money always have money.

Two homes, three cars, a truck and a boat and not selling.

I'm hoping the market has a down turn for selfish reasons. I am waiting to buy another boat and the ones I want are just too much for me right now (33/36 Outlaw, Cafe Racer / Top Gun, or similar). Hoping for 2008 pricing. :party-smiley-004:

With the current rate of inflation, I would rather have assets and real estate as opposed to cash sitting in a low to no interest bearing account.

Assets like ETF’s which are getting crushed…? Cash is trash…but as Ray Dalio would say stocks are trashier. There is no where to hide from inflation and a cooling economy. Think that’s the definition of stagflation. Real estate holding up decent but only a matter of time…interest rates are pricing everyone out. Inventory is on the rise. Hope everyone is buckled up. Gonna be a bumpy ride.

Aren't you selling your boat now? 😉

I'm selling or well it's for sale. Starboard k plane cylinder sticks here and there, otherwise push button and 496 gives 100 percent.
Put a hundred hours on it, 10 times that cleaning, love the boat but don't enjoy it anymore, done with boating. i'll make a good deal for someone.

My father always said that it is hard to go far wrong with Real Estate. They just are not making any more of it. In his 85 years he was never failed by a single piece he owned, held, leased or sold. Had his sucess in business as well as a few that flopped. But the Real Estate always came thru in the long haul. I have tried to follow his example best as I could for most of my life and as I sit here today it has worked out pretty much the same way for me as well. All those years, nights and weekends, doing those chitty jobs as his #1 assistant paid off.

My home and my vacation home are shooting up in value according to Redfin and Zillow.

Gotta have the right ETF's. HIBS, SPXS, SQQQ, SPDN. The markets can be played both ways.

I'll be looking for sure. Probably going to scoop up a 31 Formula PC or similar Sundancer to hang on next year.

Shorting the market isn’t investing…nor is it owning an asset. Looking backwards is always 20/20.

just like owning apple and Microsoft in the 80’s.

I've already noticed boats that were not to be found last summer are being posted up. People are offing their luxuries as everything is going up but their paycheck.

I've noticed prices going back down to pre-covid levels and seeing good deals as well. I think some people will be looking to get out of boating cause the gas is so expensive and inflation eating hole in wallets.

Real estate generally a good bet, but I've worked on many single asset real estate bankruptcy cases as well, they are not without risk.

They are leveraged ETF's and you own shares just like any other ETF. They are made for short term investing and trading.
I think I'll keep the 20% in $$$ assets I gained since last Thurs as opposed to the 10% the markets lost.

Anybody looking for a Good home for their 34NT?? I have a nice warm w/h and a totally enclosed slip w hoist. Promise to love it long time :daz:

SDOW isn’t an asset…nor are any of the leveraged ETF’s. They all have theta decay built into it. Meaning they all go to zero. If that’s the definition of an asset…then I guess you are right.

you are timing the market (I.e. gambling) to hedge your stocks…which is fine.

still not an asset.

Thought about you when I listed mine in mid May with Big Thunder. The listing came out at 9am Sunday May 15 and it went under to contract to a guy in Connecticut 46 minutes after the listing came out for asking price. I didn't sell it for the $. Decided to sell it because we only put 10 hours on it in 2020 and 2021. Wife and I used it once in 2021. Bottom line is when our kids and grandkids come down the last 3-4 years they spend all their time fishing, floating off the docks (with beer in hand) and playing on our two jetskis. Handwriting was on the wall when they were down over 2 weeks in 2021 and the NT never got uncovered. Not sure if or what might be next. This is the first time since 1988 that I'm boatless, well, except for the two jetskis that get used every time we are at the lake. It just seemed like a great time to sell and sit back and watch the market for awhile.

There is no theta aka time decay in leveraged ETF's. The shares are no different than investing in SPY, except carry more risk. Theta decay only happens with options.

my bad wrong decay…leveraged ETF’s have beta (ie. Volatility) decay.

meaning they don’t perfectly mirror the index. As DOW for instance goes up and down…SDOW won’t return the equal inverse of DOW.

regardless I wouldn’t consider leveraged ETF’s an asset or an investment. They are a hedge generally to protect existing assets/investments. Guess it depends on your definition of asset. But my general opinion is it’s something that if you hold over long term will go up…

What is the decay?

Most of the time, a leveraged ETF does worse than the underlying asset leveraged by the same factor. This relative decay has several reasons: beta-slippage, roll yield, tracking errors, management fees. Only the latter is predictable. Roll yield may be prominent for commodity ETFs (leveraged or not), but beta-slippage is usually the main reason of decay.

i hope when my kids are grown and come home that they are begging to use my go fast. They seem to be enjoying it now (8&10) I think they have subconsciously started to realize they feel cool pulling up when people are all looking at them. Their father on the other hand could do without the attention when he’s trying to dock and not look like an ass, with dry pipes blaring.

I do know though that they go through phases. Starting to enjoy wakeboarding so I assume I’ll end up with a wakeboard boat for a period of time.

no intention of selling though, but I was shocked at what the asking price is on flat bottom cigs……

With all those crypto billionaires now living behind wendys…demand for boats should have gone way down!!! 😂🤣

I pulled the plug and sold our Cape Coral house. Bought it at about 15% off the bottom of the market 6 years ago and set a new high comp when selling. Since then, days on market and pricing has gone negative. We always looked at that house as an investment, so the time was right (well, and I got tired of the crappy Caloosahatchee water coming down). The challenge now is finding replacement properties so not to pay big taxes. There is allot of cash out there looking for real estate.

While our place at LOTO has gone way, way up, we will not be selling.

Looks like the froth is gone from the boat market but a friend recently sold his 29 SeaVee.
He bought it new for 91k, kept it on a lift on long boat key, fished it for 10 yrs, repowered and ran it five more years and sold it 2 months ago for 145k.

In the midst of the 2008 crash I retried we sold two homes at a loss and we moved to northern Michigan into a real-estate market somewhat unaffected by the crash which means we sold low and paid high . That fall we took an appx. $500K investment hit. When we put the boat away for the winter I told my wife aren't you glad we keep filling the tank and using the boat all season as it was our only escape from the chaos going on around us and continued into following years.

Obviously a person has to sell toys/material goods if they get into a significant financial downturn but don't panic sell just because gasoline is crazy money. Search the old threads regarding gas prices and everyone thought 2008/9 was the end of times for boating and things eventually cycled.

I hate to see anyone loose or have to sell. I'm a buyer in a downturn though.

I think most view it as a good time to unload and start over.
In my buddy’s case, none of us wanted the torture of LBK traffic to get to his house just to go fishing when we had our own boats on lifts in the back yard.

Up here in Michigan, I'm starting to see older cruiser boats going up for sale. You eventually find out that these people bought a boat with covid money and when gas was cheap. Now that they are back to work, with no more stimulus money coming in and gas is on the rise, they are selling trying to stop the bleeding. But the down side is because they bought high, they are still trying to sell high. There are some deals out there, but few and far between right now.

I have one 3 acre piece of dirt that I am OK selling now.
It happens to be next door to my ex-girlfriend...
...so value varies person to person. :D

Time will tell what happens, but I remember a lot of people in 08-09 telling people, "If I don't get X amount for my boat ill just keep it!" Then a couple months later it's repossessed and on National Liquidators. Seems to be a lot of that going around with sellers right now, even when the brokers flat out tell you they've had no real offers in months..

Totally remember ^^^^
I remember people that owed so much, if they didn't get what they needed, it was being repo'd anyway. So many people that had never been in a financial issue before, where. They didn't know what to do. I had some friends that washed their cars, brought them to me to do some repairs, to bring back because it was getting repo'd. Doh.. Obviously I stopped them from doing the repairs, not like they had any cash left anyway. I never wrote so many repair estimates for normal work, and was told they couldn't pay it in my life. Lots of work for nothing but stories. :( Even older retired people that used to have big cash. ugly.... Lots of people lost their shirts back then. Lots more will this time too. Gunna be ugly me's thinks.

Repos (autos) starting to flood used car market here about 3 weeks ago ? We'll see.

I really do not see that this one will be like 2008/2009. There just is not as many leveraged on junk like they were then. Most homes have had to be bought with real down payments and loans, not sign with no verification, no down interest only junk. Around me its amazing how many have been bought with cash, the value goes down no big deal.

Then those junk loans got bundled up and sold as investments, really took a lot out when the house of cards fell.

This will be more like the normal 10-12 year recessions. At least that is what I think, time will tell.

I'm not convinced the banks were writing any better business during these last couple years than they were back in the mid-2000's. Too many people making too many big purchases. Why if you were that flush with cash did it take the pandemic to make you go nuts with your own money? We shall soon see if things continue to go South.

No selling anything for me but it may cause me to push back my retirement date a year or two. Was going to go out next spring. Will wait and see how things go. Fortunate that it is up to me when to go and not being pushed out (at least for now).

I will say after a bit of a lull of a weekend post-Memorial Day weekend this past weekend at LOTO did not lack for cruiser or any other type of boat traffic. Plenty of peeps out on Friday and Saturday burning fuel.

agreed. Everyone keeps saying people are less leveraged and banks were responsible giving loans. Since when are the banks and government looking out for anyone. I can’t remember saying the phrase “where is everyone getting there money” as much as I did in the last 2 years. My guess is they don’t have money…

time will tell, but I think the writing is on the wall.

That how it feels around here as well. Some parts of the country have been over heated and are starting to roll over now though.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.off...ff970c64b.jpeg

I imagine most that are or will be selling soon are the ones who bought overpriced recently and now need to get that overpriced back. Hopefully things cool gradually and not suddenly.