2003 Pro Series F1 Endgame
08-26-2003, 09:07 AM
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2003 Pro Series F1 Endgame
Okay, guys. Here’s my analysis for the endgame of the 2003 F1 Pro Series.
Again, I apologize for overlooking Randy’s 48 points in Daytona. Serious blunder on my part. (See: http://www.offshoreonly.com/forums/s...threadid=57504)
To avoid further horrors, BJ has been appointed Peer Review Lead of this endgame analysis. He has the sharpest eyes. Please help BJ (and everybody else) by thoroughly reviewing the numbers and assumptions. The Excel spreadsheet used for the analysis can be downloaded from http://www.superfest.org/endgame.xls . I didn’t hide any virii or Trojans in it. Note: Statistically, every spreadsheet has at least one mistake in it. Please help finding it.
Executive summary: The season is over. Barring a total disaster (more below,) Gino & Mark have won. Barring a total disaster (more below,) Randy & Glenn can only win if they finish first in both remaining races, AND if they get 16 points currently under review from the Savannah Kilos. Despite their heroic job, the Eagles will probably finish the season as #3. And that's a victory in itself for a bunch of FNGs.
Data and assumptions: Gino has finished 1st in Mentor, six boats in the race, 105 swappable points to his credit. The Eagles have finished 2nd in St Cloud, 3 boats in the race (Eagles: had you been drinking???) - 91 swappable boats to their credit. Randy & Glenn haven’t graced a Divisional with their presence yet, they are still hoping that the NJ Boyz will put the MD (as in Maryland …) race under the APBA umbrella … We assume that they will finish 1st somewhere in a Divisional, and that there will be enough boats in that race. For this analysis, we assume 6 boats, 105 swappable points to Typhoon’s credit. Note: They don’t have these points yet, the competition does. We also assume for the calculation of bonus points that in both upcoming Pro Series races, there will be 7 boats in F1. Meaning that 1st place gets 106 points, 2nd place gets 95 points and 3rd place gets 85 points. At the end of the day, the number of boats in both upcoming races don’t really matter, it equals out.
For this analysis, we are only looking at the first three boats. The 4th boat in the High Points standings, Velocity, is 200 points behind Gino. If someone sees a halfway realistic chance of Velocity becoming a factor in the endgame, please let us know.
The “More of the same” scenario.
Assumptions: What you see is what you get. Gino continues to lead in both upcoming races, with Typhoon 2nd and the Eagles 3rd. Standings before any swaps: Gino & Mark: 721 points. Typhoon: 626 points. Eagles: 561 points. Gino swaps 84 points in Marathon for his 105 points in Mentor, net gain 21 points, Grand Total 742 points. Randy swaps 48 points in Daytona (correct, BJ) for his hopefully 105 points in a Divisional yet T.B.D., net gain 57 points, Grand Total 683 points. The Eagles swap 67 points in Sarasota for their 91 points in St. Cloud, net gain 24 points, Grand Total 585 points. Gino wins!
The “Randy wins both” scenario.
Assumptions: Typhoon spends some time at Lake X, they find a secret potion or whatever to get past Gino. Typhoon wins both upcoming races. Gino finishes 2nd, the Eagles 3rd. After doing their swaps (see above,) the points are: Gino & Mark 720, Typhoon 705, Eagles 585. Gino wins! If on the other hand the judges should reinstate Typhoon’s Savannah Kilo winnings, and if they get 16 points, Typhoon will scrape by Winnebago, and will win by a hair. Likelihood of Typhoon winning both races and a sudden attack of judges’ remorse: You decide.
The “Doomsday for Gino” scenario.
Gino has a sudden attack of recklessness. He gets penalized at both races and finishes last. He swaps one of the bad races for Mentor. Typhoon and Eagles swap as above. Gino & Mark 667, Typhoon 705, Eagles 605. Typhoon wins.
The “Doomsday for Gino II” scenario.
Gino has a sudden attack of recklessness. He gets penalized at one race and finishes last. He swaps that race for Mentor. He then wins the other race. Typhoon and Eagles swap as above. Gino & Mark 709, Typhoon 705, Eagles 595. Gino wins! Typhoon wins only if they get some Kilo points back.
Net, net:
Even if Typhoon wins both upcoming races, and even if Gino completely messes up in one race, Typhoon will finish 2nd, unless they get their Kilo points back. The Eagles could gain another 10+ points by winning another Divisional, but it will not change the outcome. Barring a total disaster at both upcoming races (“Doomsday for Gino”) F1-10 Winnebago has won the season. If Randy decides to hang it up for the season and to get ready for the worlds, the Eagles have a very good shot at the #2 position.
Again, I apologize for overlooking Randy’s 48 points in Daytona. Serious blunder on my part. (See: http://www.offshoreonly.com/forums/s...threadid=57504)
To avoid further horrors, BJ has been appointed Peer Review Lead of this endgame analysis. He has the sharpest eyes. Please help BJ (and everybody else) by thoroughly reviewing the numbers and assumptions. The Excel spreadsheet used for the analysis can be downloaded from http://www.superfest.org/endgame.xls . I didn’t hide any virii or Trojans in it. Note: Statistically, every spreadsheet has at least one mistake in it. Please help finding it.
Executive summary: The season is over. Barring a total disaster (more below,) Gino & Mark have won. Barring a total disaster (more below,) Randy & Glenn can only win if they finish first in both remaining races, AND if they get 16 points currently under review from the Savannah Kilos. Despite their heroic job, the Eagles will probably finish the season as #3. And that's a victory in itself for a bunch of FNGs.
Data and assumptions: Gino has finished 1st in Mentor, six boats in the race, 105 swappable points to his credit. The Eagles have finished 2nd in St Cloud, 3 boats in the race (Eagles: had you been drinking???) - 91 swappable boats to their credit. Randy & Glenn haven’t graced a Divisional with their presence yet, they are still hoping that the NJ Boyz will put the MD (as in Maryland …) race under the APBA umbrella … We assume that they will finish 1st somewhere in a Divisional, and that there will be enough boats in that race. For this analysis, we assume 6 boats, 105 swappable points to Typhoon’s credit. Note: They don’t have these points yet, the competition does. We also assume for the calculation of bonus points that in both upcoming Pro Series races, there will be 7 boats in F1. Meaning that 1st place gets 106 points, 2nd place gets 95 points and 3rd place gets 85 points. At the end of the day, the number of boats in both upcoming races don’t really matter, it equals out.
For this analysis, we are only looking at the first three boats. The 4th boat in the High Points standings, Velocity, is 200 points behind Gino. If someone sees a halfway realistic chance of Velocity becoming a factor in the endgame, please let us know.
The “More of the same” scenario.
Assumptions: What you see is what you get. Gino continues to lead in both upcoming races, with Typhoon 2nd and the Eagles 3rd. Standings before any swaps: Gino & Mark: 721 points. Typhoon: 626 points. Eagles: 561 points. Gino swaps 84 points in Marathon for his 105 points in Mentor, net gain 21 points, Grand Total 742 points. Randy swaps 48 points in Daytona (correct, BJ) for his hopefully 105 points in a Divisional yet T.B.D., net gain 57 points, Grand Total 683 points. The Eagles swap 67 points in Sarasota for their 91 points in St. Cloud, net gain 24 points, Grand Total 585 points. Gino wins!
The “Randy wins both” scenario.
Assumptions: Typhoon spends some time at Lake X, they find a secret potion or whatever to get past Gino. Typhoon wins both upcoming races. Gino finishes 2nd, the Eagles 3rd. After doing their swaps (see above,) the points are: Gino & Mark 720, Typhoon 705, Eagles 585. Gino wins! If on the other hand the judges should reinstate Typhoon’s Savannah Kilo winnings, and if they get 16 points, Typhoon will scrape by Winnebago, and will win by a hair. Likelihood of Typhoon winning both races and a sudden attack of judges’ remorse: You decide.
The “Doomsday for Gino” scenario.
Gino has a sudden attack of recklessness. He gets penalized at both races and finishes last. He swaps one of the bad races for Mentor. Typhoon and Eagles swap as above. Gino & Mark 667, Typhoon 705, Eagles 605. Typhoon wins.
The “Doomsday for Gino II” scenario.
Gino has a sudden attack of recklessness. He gets penalized at one race and finishes last. He swaps that race for Mentor. He then wins the other race. Typhoon and Eagles swap as above. Gino & Mark 709, Typhoon 705, Eagles 595. Gino wins! Typhoon wins only if they get some Kilo points back.
Net, net:
Even if Typhoon wins both upcoming races, and even if Gino completely messes up in one race, Typhoon will finish 2nd, unless they get their Kilo points back. The Eagles could gain another 10+ points by winning another Divisional, but it will not change the outcome. Barring a total disaster at both upcoming races (“Doomsday for Gino”) F1-10 Winnebago has won the season. If Randy decides to hang it up for the season and to get ready for the worlds, the Eagles have a very good shot at the #2 position.
Last edited by Peconic; 08-26-2003 at 02:02 PM.
08-26-2003, 10:59 AM
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Postscript: We are rightly worried about slacking attendance in the races. We want more boats to compete! More than any engine differences, the current point system acts as a disincentive for most racers. After reading the results, who except Gino feels an urge to race this season, except for the sheer hell of it?
Gasp: If Randy decides to fohgeddaboutit until the worlds, Gino could even skip a race and still win. Likewise, Randy would probably finish #2, regardless.
From the beginning towards the end of the season, we see a steady drop-off in attendance, simply because it honestly makes less and less sense for more and more boats to compete. In most other sports, there is a fierce battle for the lead until the end. And there is a fierce battle for survival in the bottom ranks. Miss a game at your own peril. Not here.
The season is like a big boatrace, where, in Randy's own words, "you are screwed if you don't get ahead at the start." This makes for boring races and a boring season with less and less racers.
Gasp: If Randy decides to fohgeddaboutit until the worlds, Gino could even skip a race and still win. Likewise, Randy would probably finish #2, regardless.
From the beginning towards the end of the season, we see a steady drop-off in attendance, simply because it honestly makes less and less sense for more and more boats to compete. In most other sports, there is a fierce battle for the lead until the end. And there is a fierce battle for survival in the bottom ranks. Miss a game at your own peril. Not here.
The season is like a big boatrace, where, in Randy's own words, "you are screwed if you don't get ahead at the start." This makes for boring races and a boring season with less and less racers.
08-26-2003, 12:05 PM
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True.
This statistic is also true (if I haven't miscounted again: ) 5 out of 8 boats racing in Daytona were AWOL in Sarasota.
Like so often in statistics, they do not reflect what was really going on. You must take the dive into the raw data.
Only 3 boats were present at all races: Winnebago, Typhoon, Eagles. And they happen to be the first three in the rankings.
Fastedie ran the first three races, dropped out from the rest.
Addiction ran the first three races, dropped out from the rest.
H2O ran two races, dropped out from the rest.
BJ ran Daytona, came in 3rd, didn't come back for the rest of the season.
Superboat ran Daytona, came in 4th, didn't come back for the rest of the season.
BRE ran in 'whacky only.
And here are the "damn the odds, we are racing" heroes: Velocity (missed Daytona, ran all the rest, great job) and Flashwave (Savannah, Sarasota).
This statistic is also true (if I haven't miscounted again: ) 5 out of 8 boats racing in Daytona were AWOL in Sarasota.
Like so often in statistics, they do not reflect what was really going on. You must take the dive into the raw data.
Only 3 boats were present at all races: Winnebago, Typhoon, Eagles. And they happen to be the first three in the rankings.
Fastedie ran the first three races, dropped out from the rest.
Addiction ran the first three races, dropped out from the rest.
H2O ran two races, dropped out from the rest.
BJ ran Daytona, came in 3rd, didn't come back for the rest of the season.
Superboat ran Daytona, came in 4th, didn't come back for the rest of the season.
BRE ran in 'whacky only.
And here are the "damn the odds, we are racing" heroes: Velocity (missed Daytona, ran all the rest, great job) and Flashwave (Savannah, Sarasota).
08-26-2003, 12:22 PM
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I race Offshore Addiction, we just didn't do Milwaukee due to the nature of the water condition inside the break wall(couldn't take that much time off work). We were in Sarasota but broke on the way out to the start. We will be at the rest . We also gained Lavey in Sarasota. I do see your point though.
08-26-2003, 01:46 PM
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I will be in Ft. Lauderdale, John Jr. (Superboat) was going to Savannah but didn't get his engine back from innovation till Thursday before the race. I think he has sold his boat now and building a 34'. Superboat is building a new center console deck for the 34,
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08-26-2003, 06:50 PM
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From what I seen in the past even when F1 Teams where out of the points race they still showed up because they wan't to race. In Sarasota some of the teams said that was some of the best racing yet this year, you don't have to be in front to have a good time...some of my best times of racing was deck to deck with 2 and 3 other boats for 3 and 4 laps even know it was for 4th and 5 th place and hanging off the side of the boat....and see who was bleeding the most after the race.
08-26-2003, 07:20 PM
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Having a great time sure works, and it is the lifeblood of club racing. But APBA makes much greater demands on time and money and commitment. If your chances evaporate, the idea of economizing might creep in your brain.
Any ideas how it could be remain interesting until the fat lady sings?
How is it done in other sports?
Any ideas how it could be remain interesting until the fat lady sings?
How is it done in other sports?
08-26-2003, 07:21 PM
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Part of the problem is if you don't have a shot you don't feel you NEED to be there. Most of us love racing but at the end of the season the funds run low and sometimes you have to pick and chose. I think most teams would give up 1-2 races at the end of the season and save the equipment for a shot at the worlds. With that said you can still count on us coming at you for all the rest of the races this year. WE WILL NEVER GIVE UP!!! We may not get a national title but we will make you work for every inch of it! 
MD
MD
