Interceptor

Banks own appx. 1 million homes via foreclosure currently and some are saying one decade to clear the inventory without further collapsing the real estate market.

rbarna

business is HOT in the lighting industry, we're back to '08 levels... actually a bit higher than '08. people are buying energy efficient products.

unlikely someone would buy an offshore boat based on higher efficiency... or would you?

Expensive Date

Tool and equipment sales,I am crazy busy.

Von Bongo

The problem with any rebound in boats is when interest rates start to go up, people will be nervous and when gas prices increase back to $5 people will be nervous. Credit won't be as loose and houses won't be appreciating at 10-20% a year. Even if they did, if you lost 50% of your homes top value it needs to now appreciate 100% to get back to that point. At 10% a year thats the better part of a decade.

In short. The hey day is over likely for a some time. Yes people with deeeep pockets will always be able to play but in my opinion a lot of the boats got sold to people that were middle class with good credit, stocks going up double digits a year, incomes increasing 8-10% a year. In short they felt they could earn their way out of or into about anything.

I don't think thats coming back anytime soon. Throw in a good bit of inflation on the horizon and that there will likely be a tax increase for everyone making over $250K a year, maybe lower, stagnate wage growth and you just don't have the makings of a big recovery in this market.

Add in 10% unemployment and a lot of people that lost or almost lost everything they had and I just sense a lot more conservative posture for people. A survey released today by AMEX shows the middle class is still in a debt reduction mode and probably will be for some time. The government revised their may consumer debt numbers and outstanding consumer debt was reduced by $14 Billion in May alone. People are getting out of debt not taking on more.

On the upside there is record cash on the sidelines and at some point people are not going to be happy with a .25% return on T bills. Banks, Wall Street, fortune 500 companies all have more cash by a long shot then anytime in history.

When that money starts to go to work the recovery will start to get traction. The unfortunate thing is, right now most are still waiting for some real positive signs that thing are getting better before dipping their toe in the water.


JMHO YMMV

Matt Trulio

Dear lord, Bill, based on the subject line I thought this had something to do with your pending tatoo.

DollaBill

hahahaha. nice Matt

Cash Bar

It does, cause at some point I'm going to throw enough money into the pot to pick the tattoo.

And it will be the $ sign for a permanent bottom Dolla.

DollaBill

now THATS funny Cash

Von Bongo

Five to seven years.

That's the length of time the Federal Reserve suggested last week that it would take for the U.S. economy to recover from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

A new survey released by AlixPartners shows that most Americans are a little more optimistic than the Fed. The majority of those surveyed don't expect their quality of life—including their spending levels—to return to pre-recession levels until mid-2013.

While it may seem like good news on the surface that consumers are more optimistic than the Fed, Bryan Eshelman, managing director of the global retail practice at AlixPartners, said the firm's research has found Americans keep pushing that date farther into the future, and consumers tend to be more optimistic than circumstances may dictate.

When the firm polled people last November, respondents expected a return to "normal" by November 2012. Now they're saying not until August 2013.

It will be interesting to see when they do their next survey whether that date gets pushed out even farther.

VtSteve

Still tons of boats, and houses, are underwater or break-even. Disposable income for many has been eaten up by inflation (perhaps the Fed should go shopping from time to time), debt paydowns, increases for tuitions and rising property taxes. Those regular people that have the money, are being pretty picky and choosey about parting with it.

Life was grand when money was free, houses were climbing like tech stocks, and jobs were plentiful due to the financial and real estate industries, government and healthcare. It's a healthy transition, but painful. The phrase "The New Normal" is abused a lot. A lot of what's going on now has to do with the Old Normal. Where many last decade chose to get the cars, the boats, the SUV's and the house plus all the toys, now they face the bills, high food and housing costs, and possibly the loss of a job.

I see a list of used boats for sale at my dealer, and it keeps getting larger. Unfortunately, the huge jump in some new boat prices from last year has not translated into higher trade ins or even private sale prices. Most are brokerage, so they may just sit in the yard another year or more. Even at low unemployment, I don't think it's a quick turnaround. Wages overall were flat for years, now wealth has declined or vanished.

It won't turn around as many think very soon, but households will be much healthier when it does.