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-   -   Market Analysis Game.......500K to spend (https://www.offshoreonly.com/forums/general-boating-discussion/316598-market-analysis-game-500k-spend.html)

sutphen 30 08-12-2014 08:33 AM


Originally Posted by Wildman_grafix (Post 4169668)
But I still have a issue buying new when I see the used prices but that is just me.

.

being one that can fix used junk,I also have a problem buying new,,something about that out the door depreciation.hard to justify for me.

Tom A. 08-12-2014 10:15 AM


Originally Posted by Jupiter Sunsation (Post 4169841)
You are correct on all counts. The thought behind the resale/keep the money was keeping the game somewhat reality based (reality as how it fits in that person's life). The thought process was to see what people would buy given a sizable budget. The shocker for me was the lack of new boats. For the guys that "always buy used" it presents a two fold problem in reality: 1. There won't be many used boats in the near future if people don't buy new ones now and 2. If the problem really persists then there won't be any new boats either (out of business).

Years ago, Tommy Gun made a comment that there will be a shortage of nice used boats in the future due to the lack of production 2009-2012 so there will be a premium on clean used inventory in the future. Not only was he right but it is still happening. Look at 2003-2006 boats now, there are a ton of them from every brand. Fast forward and try to find those same models in 2008-2011 model years and you will be hard pressed to find anything. So what will you find in say 2015-17 for 2-3 year old inventory?

I agree with you and this is what I find very interesting.

One - There are very few new boats on this list because let's face it $500K doesn't buy a lot of "dream boat" these days. Some of the high end CC's are getting more than that. When you can get a million $ boat that is 3-5 years old for under $500k, that makes sense even in a fantasy world.

Two - The used market in 5 years will be very interesting as you have pointed out and there will be HUGE price variations on 10-15 year old boats. Two "identically" equipped 10 year old 38 Top Guns lets say may have a 30-40% value difference (and rightfully so) depending on how they were maintained. Some people will cry "oh well so an so's boat went for $ and this one at $$ is way too much"..... until you compare them and see that $ needs $$$ to make it as nice as $$.

Nate5.0 08-12-2014 10:34 AM


Originally Posted by Tom A. (Post 4169972)
I agree with you and this is what I find very interesting.

One - There are very few new boats on this list because let's face it $500K doesn't buy a lot of "dream boat" these days. Some of the high end CC's are getting more than that. When you can get a million $ boat that is 3-5 years old for under $500k, that makes sense even in a fantasy world.

Two - The used market in 5 years will be very interesting as you have pointed out and there will be HUGE price variations on 10-15 year old boats. Two "identically" equipped 10 year old 38 Top Guns lets say may have a 30-40% value difference (and rightfully so) depending on how they were maintained. Some people will cry "oh well so an so's boat went for $ and this one at $$ is way too much"..... until you compare them and see that $ needs $$$ to make it as nice as $$.

And it is for that very reason my Sonic is indoor kept, left with factory merc power, maintained on time with full records, and is cleaned to the "T" every time it is put away. The used market is only going up for clean and none abused boats.

Comanche3Six 08-12-2014 11:50 AM

Joe, check this Cig out!
http://www.offshoreonly.com/classifi...o58394-en.html

ChadB 08-12-2014 12:07 PM

I would have to go the OL or Cig route 08-10 with big power..1200's probably. get that around 350 have 150k for maintenance, fuel, and traveling expenses!

Cash Bar 08-12-2014 04:09 PM


Originally Posted by Jupiter Sunsation (Post 4169841)

Years ago, Tommy Gun made a comment that there will be a shortage of nice used boats in the future due to the lack of production 2009-2012 so there will be a premium on clean used inventory in the future. Not only was he right but it is still happening.

Trust me when I say NO ONE on this board is more keenly aware of how the used market is thin with quality and proud on price. I've passed up deals I should have taken and now I've got a higher budget and the options are far less worthy. I have watched another Summer come and go. Now I hang my hopes on what becomes available this winter. Again.

Allicat38 08-12-2014 05:03 PM

Could it be people don't want to spend on this kind of toy. It really is throwing money away and you have to love it or You wont last long. Or the younger generation is just not that into it. With the price of a house, food ,upkeep family these days and the wages I think the younger generation is not into it. Look at cars. I always had muscle cars and v 8s, now a 4 cylinder is more desireable. I think the number of buyers are going down along with number of used boats. It may even out.

Jupiter Sunsation 08-12-2014 05:48 PM


Originally Posted by Allicat38 (Post 4170337)
Could it be people don't want to spend on this kind of toy. It really is throwing money away and you have to love it or You wont last long. Or the younger generation is just not that into it. With the price of a house, food ,upkeep family these days and the wages I think the younger generation is not into it. Look at cars. I always had muscle cars and v 8s, now a 4 cylinder is more desireable. I think the number of buyers are going down along with number of used boats. It may even out.

This could definitely be trouble for the future toy market! Toyota commissioned a study years ago on why kids today don't really care if they drive or not. When I was 16 you went and got your license on your birthday. I have 18 yr old kids on my street that never have even bothered to get a permit! Low wages/ high living costs and general non-interest is going to kill the future jet ski, snowmobile, car/truck/boat market as well as the accessory markets that go alone with them.

I know guys that sold big sportfishes and decided fishing wasn't worth the associated costs of having a big boat. Filling the tanks on some of them is $15,000 and you could burn that in a weekend! Plus slip fees, bottom cleaning, maintenance, captain/mates......I would consider these rich guys, the consensus was "been there, done that" and after 20-25 years of big boats they are out.

Jupiter Sunsation 08-12-2014 05:50 PM


Originally Posted by Cash Bar (Post 4170284)
Trust me when I say NO ONE on this board is more keenly aware of how the used market is thin with quality and proud on price. I've passed up deals I should have taken and now I've got a higher budget and the options are far less worthy. I have watched another Summer come and go. Now I hang my hopes on what becomes available this winter. Again.

A certain blue 525 ZRC comes to mind @ 125K years ago and is now asking 175k for a used boat with more hours! :D

drpete3 08-12-2014 06:31 PM

I would have to think about it a bunch. Probably look for a 42 ol w 700s and nxt drives


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