Wife and I both have defined pensions, S.S., paid supplement healthcare and owe nothing. I'm 76 & wife is 68. We went cash back when covid arrived. There's a point where it's nice to know you have income and a million plus dollars everyday.

if you think retail investors were the only ones involved in that squeeze...you are crazy. Big institutions difinitely participated (I.e. black rock, etc).

Market Update Jan 31, 2021

The markets tried to rally during the course of the week, but then collapsed following the short-covering (or short squeeze) saga that large institutional investors witnessed. Retail investors got the upper hand this time and were able to win against the "big boys" at their own game. I have touched on this subject in a report published yesterday and entitled:

Short Selling, Short Squeezes, And A Better Way To Win

It seems that brokerage firms were under pressure for various reasons and decided to stop or limit trading for many stocks including stocks such as GME (GME), AMC (AMC), BB (BB), EXPR (EXPR), and KOSS (KOSS). This has been called "outrageous" by many retail investors who are blaming the brokerage firms of protecting hedge funds from retail investors. Why restrict small investors from making money at a time when hedge funds made billions shorting stocks (at the expense of these small investors)? Are all investors not equal when it comes to investing?

We are likely to see a lot of debates about this subject over the next months, and hopefully, the government and regulators will find a solution to make the markets a better place for small investors, and safeguard their interests against the larger players.

The Market Turbulence Creates a 'Buying Opportunity'

Returning back to our main subject about the market volatility and the pullback, I will explain why this pullback represents a buying opportunity.

It is no surprise that the markets pulled back. Many large institutions who were shorting several stocks got hammered by the "short squeeze" and lost billions of dollars. These firms had to raise money elsewhere and some dumping large amounts of stocks in the markets to raise liquidity. This has resulted in market volatility and contributed to the sharp pullback.

Another reason for the pullback is that some investors are worried about the whole situation, and decided to raise cash.

Should we be worried? To answer this question we have to look at the big picture. The fundamentals remain strong. All of the positives that I have been highlighting over the past weeks remain in place to support this market and drive it higher.

1. Liquidity and Cash on the Sidelines: A big factor to consider when evaluating a trend in equity is the amount of excess liquidity. Today, it is estimated that there remains $6 trillion in cash and low-yielding money market funds earning nothing (or next to nothing). Much of this liquidity will eventually find its way to the markets and help equities go higher.
2. Liquidity will get another Big Boost: Not only is excess liquidity high today, but it will get a huge boost once trillions of dollars in stimulus start circulating within the economy as a result of government stimulus. We cannot under-estimate this. It was noted in the news that some retail investors have been using their stimulus checks to put money in the markets this week to take advantage of the short squeeze. These small investors were able to impact the markets today, and this is a trend that is likely to continue.
3. Valuations: While there are some areas in the market that look overvalued, notably FAANG stocks and other related ones (the high flying stocks). There is no doubt that some of these stocks are seeing investor euphoria. However, I can confidently say that the vast majority of stocks are not overvalued. The indexes over the past year were driven higher by only a few stocks that carry a large weight within the S&P and Nasdaq indexes. The vast majority of stocks did not see much gains compared to the "high flying stocks". Also as noted in previous market updates, one of the best valuation metrics to use to assess general market valuations is relative valuations to interest rates (or the 10-year Treasury yield). Prior to the Great Financial Crisis seen in 2008, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.5%. Today these same yields are at 1.1%. This impacts valuations tremendously and indicates that the vast majority of stocks are not expensive.
4. Sector rotation: The overvaluations of some tech stocks has resulted in a market rotation into equity stocks. This means that the money remains invested in the markets, but there is a shift in allocations. We are likely to see a broader market rally going forward, rather than "only" a tech rally. This should bode very well with the HDO dividend picks as most are value investments.
5. Interest rates and the Fed: This week, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate anchored near zero following the conclusion of its two-day meeting Wednesday. This was expected. However the important part came though the Fed statement which provides guidance for the Fed's future actions. The Fed no longer will raise rates in anticipation of inflation but rather will tolerate higher levels in the interest of a more inclusive recovery, as confirmed by Mr. Powell (again) this week. This means that the Fed will not intervene by raising interest rates even if inflation hits above the 2% Fed target. This is very bullish for equities.
6. The Fed has got your back! During the past past 13 years, when equity markets were weak, the Federal Reserve stepped in and bailed everybody out eventually. This is a sensitive issue with the Fed because the equity markets are the backbone of the U.S. economy. With the U.S. economy being more fragile than before, the Fed's tolerance for a weak market is low. I am confident that the Fed would quickly move in if any liquidity issues occurred – and in case of a large market pullback, they will not hesitate to use their many tools. Don't fight the Fed!
7. I expect that there will be enough vaccines to end the economic crisis before year-end. The recovery will be enormous as additional stimulus is injected in the system and businesses start opening. I expect the global economy to be running on all cylinders by year-end and through the year 2022.

The Short Term Outlook

While I am very bullish for the year, the short-term outlook does not look great from a technical point of view. We are likely to see more turbulence and possibly another leg of pullback. However any pullback should be limited. The 3600 level offers strong support for the S&P 500. This level has a lot of psychological and structural money coming into the markets to buy the dip.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is that from a fundamental perspective, the stock market remains undervalued today and supported by high liquidity and economic tailwinds. This is especially true among "value" stocks, which have not seen the explosive growth we have seen with FAANG, electric vehicle makers, and other tech companies. I expect more volatility in the next few days. My best recommendation is to use weakness to put new cash at work if you are not fully invested. The next target for the S&P 500 index is at the 4000 level and I expect that the index will close the year above the 4300 level. For value stocks, the upside should be much more than the S&P 500 index. Over the past few months, we have seen a rotation from growth stocks to value stocks. This has resulted in our "model portfolio" to strongly outperform the S&P 500 index since October 2020. This trend is set to continue.

Although the short term picture does not look great, the medium and long term outlook is very solid. Timing the markets is difficult and can result in lost opportunities. I am fully invested and do not plan to raise cash. If you are not fully invested, I recommend you do the same. Our goal is to collect income no matter how equities are doing, and selling positions during a secular bull market is not a good idea.

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Picks of the Week, and Best Sectors to be Invested In

We have been seeing strength in economically sensitive investments which include Business Development Companies ('BDCs'), and Mortgage REITs (mREITs). The rally has started in late 2020, and these two sectors still have plenty to catch up on. Interestingly, most Property REITs have not seen much of a recovery in the year 2020, and look like they are getting ready to break out. Perhaps this is one of the most under-valued sectors in the high yield space. Some of our best picks in the sector are as follows:

Mortgage REITs:

1. AGNC (AGNC) - yield 9.2%. AGNC reported strong earnings as we expected with high cash-flow and book value growth that was more than we anticipated. As long as the Fed maintains a zero-interest-rate policy, AGNC will continue to thrive.
2. Annaly (NLY) - yield 10.8%. NLY is trading at a steeper discount to book value than AGNC. It's earnings report will also be very strong as it benefits from the same tailwinds that AGNC does.
3. Dynex (DX) - yield 9.1%. (non-HDO pick) DX started a capital raise issuing new shares the other day. As frequently happens when a company issues shares, the price dipped and we consider this a buying opportunity. In their filing, DX revealed that as of the end of 2020, their book value was $19.08/share. The share issuance occurred below book value, however even after dilution DX is in the ballpark of $18.92/share. They are taking advantage of great buying opportunities and in the long-run, this will improve their cash-flow and their dividend.
4. SACH (SACH) - yield 10.7% (this is a non-HDO pick that we highlighted to our members this week here). This is also not technically a mortgage REIT, but its main business is servicing and issuing housing loans, primarily to flippers. SACH directly benefits from the hot housing market. We expect the housing market to remain very strong as mortgage rates remain near all-time lows.
5. America First Multifamily Investors (ATAX) - yield 5.4%. This is not technically an mREIT, but the company's main business is mortgages on apartment buildings. This is one of the most undervalued stocks in the sector, and likely to increase its dividends this year. We expect plenty of upside, as ATAX is trading cheap compared to its own history. The distributions are mostly tax-free, which is a big added advantage.

Business Development Companies:

Our best BDC picks are ones that are set to benefit the most from the new government spending, stimulus, and infrastructure plans:

1. Newtek (NEWT) - yield 10%. NEWT is mostly in the business of generating SBA loans and PPP loans and is set to be a huge beneficiary from government spending and the COVID relief bills. This is my personal favorite BDC. Another big advantage of investing in this company is the high insider ownership, with management owning 6% of the company's share. This has resulted in the stock strongly outperforming over the years.
2. Ares Capital (ARCC) - yield 9.2%. ARCC is one of the largest BDCs and has access to more capital than most. ARCC recently issued $650 million in 2.15% Notes, a much cheaper rate than most of their peers are capable of obtaining. As such, it is able to service larger companies than the typical BDC which gives it an added edge. ARCC has a strong track record and has survived several bear markets and was able to emerge as a winner in good and bad times. This is a time-tested BDC worth investing in.

Property REITs: The Most Undervalued Sector Today:

1. W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) - yield 6.3%. Triple-net REIT prices have lagged even as they kick on their acquisition engines. WPC ended 2020 with a total of $826 million in new investments. They expect to keep up an accelerated pace in 2021. Real estate is trading inexpensively relative to interest rates and that means right now is a great time for REITs to be buying.
2. Realty Income (O) - yield 4.8%. Like WPC, O is going on a buying spree having recently had a secondary issuance. This is going to propel their growth resulting in both more dividend growth and price growth.
3. Medical Properties Trust (MPW) - yield 5.1%. MPW is a medical REIT and gives you exposure to real estate that is rented to hospitals and doctors. It has a lot going for them. Like WPC and O, they are expanding with acquisitions at a very good time. MPW's improved balance sheet combined with the low-interest rate environment allowed them to refinance 5.5% and 6.375% unsecured notes with 3.5% unsecured notes. This is a very material improvement that will benefit their bottom line.
4. BRT Apartments (BRT) - yield 6.3%. This is a housing REIT and provides exposure to the booming real estate market. After climbing to nearly $16, BRT has dipped back below $14 for the first time since November. This is an opportunity to add to your position for those using the "waves of the ocean" approach, building a position over time by adding on the dips. BRT's exposure is primarily in the Sun Belt, which means that they have avoided the large rent reductions we saw in more urban areas in 2020.
5. Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (RQI) - yield 7.8%. RQI is a CEF (closed-end fund) that provides immediate diversification in the REIT space. This is also a great option to gain exposure to high-quality REITs and participate in the REIT recovery for 2021. Currently trading at a modest 4% discount to NAV, we expect that RQI's price will be driven by continued growth in NAV.
6. Cohen & Steers REIT & Preferred Income Fund (RNP) - yield 6.6%. RNP is another property REIT CEF. It a more conservative option than RQI because around 50% of its holding are invested in preferred stocks issued by REITs. The other 50% are invested in equity REITs. RNP is trading at a 3% discount to NAV and will continue to see upside as low-interest rates drive the value of their fixed-income investments and their equity holdings should rally in 2021.
7. Aberdeen Global Premier Properties (AWP) - yield 9.0% paid monthly. This CEF provides exposure to international Property REITs. It trades at a large discount to NAV, and offers a nice yield. International stocks are much undervalued relative to U.S. stocks and therefore have more upside potential. AWP offers international diversification with a good upside potential.

Fixed Income:

As a reminder, we are currently recommending a 45% allocation to fixed income in order to protect against market volatility and safeguard our income stream.

1. Individual preferred stocks: Our preferred stock portfolio is composed of solid companies that offer high yield and upside potential. It is the best source for income investors to pick the best preferred around. The big advantage of preferred stocks is that you can get a high level of income with low price volatility. I monitor this portfolio closely with the help of HDO experts "Preferred Stock Trader", one of the best in the field, and "Beyond Savings", an expert on REITs and mREITs. I strongly recommend that members take advantage of these picks to build a solid income portfolio.
2. Individual "baby bonds": Our baby bond portfolio is designed for conservative investors and is closely managed by Preferred Stock Trader. PST shares his top ideas every week with our members, and gives us the assurance that this portfolio is as solid as it gets.
3. Preferred stock CEFs and ETFs: There is no better way to get immediate diversification in the preferred shares space than investing in CEFs and ETFs. Our model portfolio includes 3 of them which are highly recommended.
   • Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFFA) - yield 8.8%
   • Nuveen Preferred & Income Securities Fund (JPS) - yield 6.5%
   • Flaherty & Crumrine Dynamic Preferred & Income Fund (DFP) - yield 6.9%
4. Fixed Income CEFs: The following CEFs still offer an attractive entry point and upside potential:
   • PIMCO Dynamic Credit Income Fund (PCI) - yield 9.9%. PCI generates income by investing in mortgage REITs and is set to benefit from higher housing prices and an improved economy.
   • PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund (PTY) - yield 8.7%. PTY is mainly a trading vehicle for fixed income. Its manager PIMCO has been able to generate trading income in both good and bad times. PTY has never cut its dividends, even during the most difficult of times such as the great financial crisis.
   • Highland Income Fund (HFRO) - yield 9.0%. This is a deep value play in the fixed income space.
   • XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust (XFLT) - yield 11.2%.
   • Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) - yield 13.0%. This is mainly a CLO CEF. Although we are bullish on CLOs, OXLC can be very volatile. As such, it is a higher risk investment, and not suitable for our conservative members.

Equity CEFs:

Here are some of our favorite equity CEFs.

1- Healthcare: The healthcare sector will continue to see strong demand due to an aging population. The new COVID vaccines have opened the door for new medical discoveries that are set to change our future and the way we get treated for difficult diseases. This is a sector that will grow for decades to come. We recommend that any portfolio should have exposure. The best way to do it is through CEFs that provide an immediate diversification. Our favorite picks are

• Tekla Healthcare Investors (HQH) - yield 8.0%
• Tekla World Healthcare Fund (THW) - yield 8.5%

2- Utilities: The utilities sector is a low volatility sector that is suitable for conservative investors. These companies make money no matter how the economy is doing. Utilities have strong tailwinds as the world moves to renewable energy. This is also a value sector with good upside potential. Our favorite picks are:

• Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund (UTF) - yield 7.0%
• Reaves Utility Income Fund (UTG) - yield 6.6%
• Global X YieldCo Index ETF (YLCO) - yield 2.7%
• Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY) - yield 4.1%. AY is a renewable energy company growing like a weed in a sector that can be expected to continue to enjoy a lot of tailwinds. Under the Biden administration, demand for renewables is set to soar and benefit companies like AY. Last week saw a 10% pullback, which we view as a buying opportunity. Even with the sell-off, AY is still up over 8% year-to-date and has a lot of room to run.

Other High Yield Opportunities

1. Altria Group (MO) - yield 8.4%. MO reported solid earnings last week and their guidance suggests there will be a material dividend increase in 2021 as their current dividend comes under their 80% of adjusted earnings target. They have a large amount of cash-flow and are willing to share it with investors.
2. Imperial Brands (OTCQX:IMBBY) - yield 9.3%. Like MO, IMBBY is a tobacco company and enjoys a substantial amount of cash-flow. The price has recovered significantly from 2020 lows, but the yield is still high. We are happy to add to our positions of this cash-cow.
3. AT&T (T) - yield 7.3%. AT&T made a lot of progress in 2020 refinancing and reducing their overall debt. Incredibly low interest rates will save them a ton of cash. In 2021, we expect AT&T will continue to refinance, and will also be making new investments. The areas of investment highest on AT&Ts priority list are 5G, fiber and HBOMax. HBOMax is reported to have dominated streaming viewership Christmas week with their release of Wonder Woman 1984.

TSNP is at $.575. It was in the low .20's when I first mentioned it.

I have a few penny mining stocks. But not mentioning their names because I'm personally involved in them. I'm mostly out of the market and in term deposits at my credit union. The deposit is guaranteed against losses. They only earn 3%, locked in before covid. Long way of saying I'm mostly cash. Waiting to get back into real estate in Canada. Want farmland or waterfront. Both carry a premium currently.

I had to copy and paste all this into Word so I could print it out. Holy smokes, now I have to read all this.

I purchased TSNP when you mentioned it. Yes its up 40 % since. When do you think I should sell or is it a hold long type of stock. I normally don't sell unless its 20 % lower than its high. This type of stock seems like it can bounce 20-30% a day. Im not a day trader.

I’ve been doing fairly well with online gaming stocks (DraftKings, Penn) and weed stocks. As more states are open to both, I think that both will rise. Some of the smaller players will be bought up as we move forward. That said, I really don’t know much, just a hunch and it has done well.