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Old 02-26-2021, 02:05 PM
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Texas storms have NOTHING to do with oil price increase, a very minor blip. Longer term trend since November. Try looking at an oil price chart. Larger macro forces at play.
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Old 02-26-2021, 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by liberator221 View Post
Am I looking at this wrong or does the math not make sense
Originally Posted by Mentalpause View Post
exactly my reaction too.
Originally Posted by Griff View Post
"The US currently produces approximately 12,108,000 barrels per day."
"Texas produced 1,609,075 barrels of oil, which is more than the other nine oil producing states combined."

Where does the other 9 million ish barrels come from???
https://worldpopulationreview.com/st...ction-by-state
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Old 02-27-2021, 10:30 AM
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Math still doesn't work. Add up the numbers and you won't get close to the 12M+ barrels a day total stated. Somewhere the numbers are off.
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Old 02-27-2021, 08:48 PM
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https://www.eia.gov/state/print.php?sid=LA
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Old 02-28-2021, 12:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Mentalpause View Post
Math still doesn't work. Add up the numbers and you won't get close to the 12M+ barrels a day total stated. Somewhere the numbers are off.
Agreed. Its 3,365,345 barrels when all the states numbers are added together.

I'm guessing the rest must come from offshore drilling??
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Old 02-28-2021, 08:23 AM
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Lots of misconceptions in this thread. Had expected folks who can afford to feed a couple of big blocks with fuel and spare parts to be better versed in economics. But I guess it talks to the strength of the American model. Myself, I would jump up and down in excitement if I could find $4 per gallon fuel this summer. So I will educate you folks. For free.

Here are non-alternative facts that should be useful.

About politics and the American economy:

1. Trump lost the election with a huge margin and Nancy Pelosi is not a pedophile. QAnon is completely nuts.

2. The economy did great under Trump. It did almost as well as it did under Obama. On the other hand, Obama started from the bottom of a deep recession while Trump started after an 8-year boom.

3. Trump's major achievement was a big tax reform that fuelled the economy. It is not very hard to lower taxes when the GOP controls both the House and the Senate.

4. While people were worried that the economy would overheat due Trump's tax reductions, and that the ballooning deficit would be a problem, it all went well.

5. Other than the tax reform, Trump did not achieve much as President. He was mostly sitting on his a** and tweeting to his base. It is fair to call him lazy. He made a lot of noise about trade with no meaningful achievements. And he built a bit of border wall and made friends with some dictators. His main failure is that he completely mishandled COVID. He also caused serious damage to America's foreign relations (except for those dictators).

6. The Obama administration managed government finances much more conservatively than the Trump administration despite a much greater need for stimulus coming out of the recession than eight years later.

7. The Biden administration has learned from Obama's mistakes. That is why it is pushing a $1.8 trillion fiscal stimulus package. That is absolutely huge.

8. That stimulus package will fuel the economy for everyone. Rich, middle class or poor. Because it is absolutely huge.

9. Monetary stimulus was very strong before the fiscal stimulus package. Looking at M2 as the best measure of how much money is in circulation, one of five dollars in circulation was created in 2020. That is absolutely huge, too.

10. Whether the combination of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus will be just what the economy needs or make it finally overheat remains to be seen.

11. Biden is keeping the left wing of the Democratic party happy by eliminating many of Trump's executive orders and using the kind of language they like.


About the oil market:

1. Oil prices are set by supply and demand for oil. Whether oil is transported by pipeline, barge or rail does not make a meaningful difference to the price, because transport is a small part of the price.

2. Saudi Arabia has a lot of capacity to turn on or off to influence prices. No one else can influence prices like that.

3. The shale boom in the United States significantly increased supply. COVID significantly reduced demand. Therefore, prices fell.

4. As the economy recovers, we should expect demand for oil to increase and prices to increase. So higher gas prices this summer should be expected.

5. However, there are lots of unknowns: for example, the shift to renewables is happening much faster than people expected and only a handful of people know how much oil Saudi Arabia will hold back from the market

6. The cold in Texas impacted prices both for crude oil and refined product prices, as a lot of capacity was not operating because of the cold. Heck, I paid 25% more for propane at a building supply store on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

7. However, that is a short-term phenomenon.


About the cold in Texas:

1. Electrity generation in Texas is about 48% gas, 20% coal, 20% wind and 1% solar. (1% is missing due to rounding).

2. The Republican administration in Texas was very successful in building out wind power and creating enough grid capacity to bring electricity from wind mills to where it is needed.

3. Wind and solar were not the problem in the outages. Wind and solar power performed better than thermal power. While wind and solar make up a little more than 20% of capacity, they only made up 13% of the losses.

3. It is not difficult to winterize wind turbines or keep gas wells flowing or keep gas-powered generation plants working in the cold. You just have to do it. Texas didn't. In places where it often gets cold, people do. It doesn't get cold very often in Texas.

5. You can also choose not to put anti-freeze in your car if you live where it rarely gets cold and want to save some money. That's how Texas approached its electricity supply. You take your chances.

6. As someone pointed out, the problems in Texas were identified when there was a smaller crisis back in 2011 when it was last really cold. It seems like Texas did not do its homework.

7. Also, Texas does not have much interconnect capacity, so it couldn't bring in enough electricity from elsewhere when production in Texas went down.__PRESENT
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Old 02-28-2021, 08:54 AM
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Originally Posted by TYPHOON View Post
Gas in NJ is on its way up already $2.65 regular cash. Anyone want to guess what it will be in the summer? $3.85 will be my guess on July 4th as a summer date to see who was closest. We can use a USA average report on the 4th of July.

87 octane was 2.85 yesterday in NW MI. Just an update from up here. I have a feeling it will slowly increase and likely a noticeable increase as we approach summer.
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Old 02-28-2021, 09:16 AM
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Old 02-28-2021, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Markus View Post
Lots of misconceptions in this thread. Had expected folks who can afford to feed a couple of big blocks with fuel and spare parts to be better versed in economics. But I guess it talks to the strength of the American model. Myself, I would jump up and down in excitement if I could find $4 per gallon fuel this summer. So I will educate you folks. For free.

Here are non-alternative facts that should be useful.

About politics and the American economy:

1. Trump lost the election with a huge margin and Nancy Pelosi is not a pedophile. QAnon is completely nuts.

2. The economy did great under Trump. It did almost as well as it did under Obama. On the other hand, Obama started from the bottom of a deep recession while Trump started after an 8-year boom.

3. Trump's major achievement was a big tax reform that fuelled the economy. It is not very hard to lower taxes when the GOP controls both the House and the Senate.

4. While people were worried that the economy would overheat due Trump's tax reductions, and that the ballooning deficit would be a problem, it all went well.

5. Other than the tax reform, Trump did not achieve much as President. He was mostly sitting on his a** and tweeting to his base. It is fair to call him lazy. He made a lot of noise about trade with no meaningful achievements. And he built a bit of border wall and made friends with some dictators. His main failure is that he completely mishandled COVID. He also caused serious damage to America's foreign relations (except for those dictators).

6. The Obama administration managed government finances much more conservatively than the Trump administration despite a much greater need for stimulus coming out of the recession than eight years later.

7. The Biden administration has learned from Obama's mistakes. That is why it is pushing a $1.8 trillion fiscal stimulus package. That is absolutely huge.

8. That stimulus package will fuel the economy for everyone. Rich, middle class or poor. Because it is absolutely huge.

9. Monetary stimulus was very strong before the fiscal stimulus package. Looking at M2 as the best measure of how much money is in circulation, one of five dollars in circulation was created in 2020. That is absolutely huge, too.

10. Whether the combination of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus will be just what the economy needs or make it finally overheat remains to be seen.

11. Biden is keeping the left wing of the Democratic party happy by eliminating many of Trump's executive orders and using the kind of language they like.


About the oil market:

1. Oil prices are set by supply and demand for oil. Whether oil is transported by pipeline, barge or rail does not make a meaningful difference to the price, because transport is a small part of the price.

2. Saudi Arabia has a lot of capacity to turn on or off to influence prices. No one else can influence prices like that.

3. The shale boom in the United States significantly increased supply. COVID significantly reduced demand. Therefore, prices fell.

4. As the economy recovers, we should expect demand for oil to increase and prices to increase. So higher gas prices this summer should be expected.

5. However, there are lots of unknowns: for example, the shift to renewables is happening much faster than people expected and only a handful of people know how much oil Saudi Arabia will hold back from the market

6. The cold in Texas impacted prices both for crude oil and refined product prices, as a lot of capacity was not operating because of the cold. Heck, I paid 25% more for propane at a building supply store on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

7. However, that is a short-term phenomenon.


About the cold in Texas:

1. Electrity generation in Texas is about 48% gas, 20% coal, 20% wind and 1% solar. (1% is missing due to rounding).

2. The Republican administration in Texas was very successful in building out wind power and creating enough grid capacity to bring electricity from wind mills to where it is needed.

3. Wind and solar were not the problem in the outages. Wind and solar power performed better than thermal power. While wind and solar make up a little more than 20% of capacity, they only made up 13% of the losses.

3. It is not difficult to winterize wind turbines or keep gas wells flowing or keep gas-powered generation plants working in the cold. You just have to do it. Texas didn't. In places where it often gets cold, people do. It doesn't get cold very often in Texas.

5. You can also choose not to put anti-freeze in your car if you live where it rarely gets cold and want to save some money. That's how Texas approached its electricity supply. You take your chances.

6. As someone pointed out, the problems in Texas were identified when there was a smaller crisis back in 2011 when it was last really cold. It seems like Texas did not do its homework.

7. Also, Texas does not have much interconnect capacity, so it couldn't bring in enough electricity from elsewhere when production in Texas went down.__PRESENT

Welcome to the board Markus, wherever you're from!

Not all of us in the US view things that are only supported by alternative and skewed facts. Some of us try to drill down a little deeper (critical thinking) and find info from multiple sources to try to understand what's reality and not alternative facts!! Unfortunately some people (not just from the US) believe the craziest things!!

That being said sometimes people that are on the outside have a clearer picture of how things really are! Quite frankly I agree that just about every point you made was fairly accurate.

Last edited by TomR; 02-28-2021 at 11:21 AM.
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Old 02-28-2021, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Markus View Post
Lots of misconceptions in this thread. Had expected folks who can afford to feed a couple of big blocks with fuel and spare parts to be better versed in economics.. So I will educate you folks. For free.

Here are non-alternative facts that should be useful.

About politics and the American economy:

1. Trump lost the election with a huge margin
Ahh so we`re all idiots, and you`re here to enlighten us! thank you so much !Gosh what would we have done without you.

The first 8 words in your #1 "facts" tells me all I need to know .

You know absolutely nothing, but I did have a good laugh at the CNN "facts" thou.
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