I hope everyone will be safe.

This could REALLY SUCK...

I don't get this.
I just checked the National Data Buoy Center and they have a buoy that's located 15.90N by 57.90W.
The storm center is 21.6N by 57.8W. That's damn near on top of the buoy and the data recorded off it says the wind speed is 13kts and wave height is 4.9ft. That was at 1500 eastern time.
I know it could be in the eye of the storm but the data from the past 24 hours shows light winds and calm seas.
What gives?????
I was looking forward to some incredible winds and sea heights.

We just had a newsperson to newsperson (CBS) verbal conflict on the descriptive word "beautiful" that the weather man used.
Looks like more certain info will be provided about Wednesday..

Unfortunately they keep citing the Carolinas as most likely if at all...

It coming this way!!! Yikes!

Poor Wilmington, N.C., they just stick out too far!!

Three days with no rain in the forecast!!

I have to get the provisions...
Barcardi
Flashlights
Bottled Water

I knew there was a reason I liked your thinking!:)

I've been saying for a week that it would hit the Carolinas.

Prevailing weather conditions are indicating that the closer the storm gets to the U.S. the more norther track they believe it will take. There's even an outside chance it may miss the mainland completely, but that would be just way too lucky. Looks like North Carolina, Virginia have the most to worry about. However, they still won't have a good idea until Sunday night/Monday morning. Just keeping our fingers crossed. Hopefully it will spare all of us.

That's an understatement! You don't live 3 blocks from the oceanfront!! Current track shows it taking the worst possible track for us. Up the Pamilco and Albermarle Sounds. That puts the worst quadrant of the storm directly overhead. NOT GOOD. :(

Better get some boating in this weekend. :D

Why do I feel as though it will arrive just in time for a Cold Front to reach the East Coast for it to bounce off of, then push it straight into Jersey? :confused:
Maybe because Jersey is long over due for the BIG ONE?
I hope not...
Let's all hope for enough pressure to push Isabel backout to sea....
Regardless, all should be prepared for Higher Tides and Heavy Winds whether the storm lands or not.....

Is it insurance fraud if I drive my boat with the broken motor somewhere near??? I'd love to pick up the agreed value instead of fixing the damn motor!!

Sharkey, unfortunitly it seems the nearest High pressure ridge is now centered over the Rockies. and our weather has been at a crawl since Isabel has been on the map.We are suposed to get rain today that has been 3 days moving across Iowa and Illinois. Usually it takes 12-18 hours to make that trip.

I'm guessing a North Carolina hit & then up the coast.

If this thing hits, and it probably will somewhere, if it hits at high tide, the storm surge could be tremendous. I've seen video footage of storm surges of 16 ft. higher than mean high tide, and that's not counting waves. This one could be rough. Let's all think: out to sea. out to sea. out to sea. Good luck everyone....

Look at that update now!!!:eek: It's looking more like Jersey by the minute...:( :( :(
Right now the line is towards Delaware. I had a feeling this one was gonna turn.....:crazy:

If you're near the coast, hook up the trailer and run like hell. This will be a bad one. If this hits shore with 140 mph winds or more you don't want to be anywhere near there. Give yourself at least two full days to get out. The roads will be crawling along, bring extra cans of gas, the stations will be crammed. Good Luck to all.

Yeah, right at my freekin boat, lovely. Anybody got a trailer that'll fit a 34 Silverton:rolleyes: Oh well, guess I'll go down and put the 3/8" dock lines on it and start looking in the Boattrader:p

insptech, funny you mention that about your silverton. My father inlaw has a 444 carver he keeps in a covered slip in solomons. Obviously, no trailer for it. By the looks of where that thing is heading, I am sure he is freaking right about now. If that track is right, that is going to push a whole hell of a lot of water up the Chesapeake and into the rivers.

Beautiful day to day and the surf's up!! :D

Got that right Troutly! The track remains unchanged from my last post. At least my house is up much higher (17.5' above mean high) than most houses here along the oceanfront. And the city just completed a million dollar hurricane protection project and built a new boardwalk/seawall and beach. Still.....I am scared s**tless. Please go by out to sea!!

Best of luck to everyone it her path.

Great pics, Troutly.

Well, it looks for the time being that the very southeast has been spared. However, I fear for those in the NC/VA area. Looks like the Chesapeake will take a direct hit by the latest estimates. Remember, they're just estimates, but looks like it's time to prepare.

--------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 151429
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 15 2003

...ISABEL SLOWS AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 505 MILES...815 KM...EAST OF NASSAU.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.2 N... 69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Here's the 11:00am Discussion Update. Looks like it will be on Cape Hatteras in 72 hours, and will be a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3.

Hurricane Isabel Discussion Number 38

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 15, 2003


satellite imagery indicates that the inner core structure continues
to break down...with a less well-defined eye in visible imagery.
Eyewall convection has become asymmetric and fragmented...and the
overall convective structure is now more banded than it was over
the past couple of days. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates are 115 kt. The advisory intensity is lowered to 120 kt
and another reconnaissance aircraft will be in the hurricane at
18z.
The initial motion is 300/7...slower than before. With the
mid-level short wave off the Carolinas moving out to the
northeast...the steering currents surrounding Isabel are beginning
to weaken as some ridging temporarily builds in northwest...ahead
of...the hurricane. This should result in a slow motion to the
northwest over the next day or two. By 48 hours or so...an
approaching trough from the west will help accelerate Isabel
north-northwestward around the west side of the deep-layer ridge
anchored near 35n and 60 W. Model guidance is in excellent
agreement on this track although the GFS is considerably slower
than the other models. Very little change has been made to the
official forecast track...which is very close to the GFDL...
UKMET...NOGAPS...GFS model consensus.
Although there has been some restriction of the outflow in the
southwest quadrant...the current weakening may be more a result of
less favorable environmental thermodynamics. There are westerlies
to the north of Isabel...but the shear is expected to be light for
the next 36 hours or so. There will be plenty of warm water
under the hurricane until cooler shelf waters are encountered right
along the coastline. One key to the ultimate landfall intensity
will be the evolution of an upper-level trough that could enhance
the outflow and reduce the shear prior to landfall if it digs as
sharply as forecast by the GFS. With this in mind...Isabel could
still be a major hurricane at landfall.
Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 15/1500z 25.2n 69.4w 120 kt
12hr VT 16/0000z 25.8n 70.3w 115 kt
24hr VT 16/1200z 27.0n 71.2w 115 kt
36hr VT 17/0000z 28.2n 72.0w 115 kt
48hr VT 17/1200z 30.0n 73.0w 115 kt
72hr VT 18/1200z 34.5n 75.5w 110 kt
96hr VT 19/1200z 40.0n 78.0w 60 kt...inland
120hr VT 20/1200z 49.5n 80.0w 30 kt...extratropical

TTT

The tracking chart under Baja Daze's first post is one of the best I have found. I like the way it updates regularly. (How did you do that anyway?)

Let's hope she keeps losing steam! :(

I hear ya Macklin! Living one block from the Bay looking North is going to be scarry enough!

I thought the updating was the best part, too. ;)

I just posted a pic from another site using the IMG code.
It looks like this, just without the spaces:
[ IMG]http://www.place_the_pic_link_here[ /IMG]
or you can use the "IMG" button when you post.

I just happened to get lucky and find a link to a chart that the author of the site updates regularly, using the same link.

:cool:

I found a good site with some real up to date accurate info and images.
www.boatus.com/hurricanes

Isabel, always updated:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA...OAT/IR4/20.jpg

Go away! Izzy! :hothead:

Wow!

THAT is COOL!

It certainly is, Shane.

It's beauty to behold, but laden with the wrath of mother nature. Pristine, yet potentially devistating.

I hope that all who will be affected by Isabel are safe and that losses are avoided. Heed the warnings carefully.

Check out this Pic. Very high resolution. Its the best one I've seen yet. Make sure you click on the picture for the full effect.

Cigracer,
That's incredible...The color of the water and everything. Great find. :)

I could not agree more with you guys. BTW, cool link cigracer. It is truly amazing that nature can often be its most beautiful in it's most violent state! I just love weather!

We are bracing here in DC too. The media is a having a field day with this; much worse than snow storms. The only place I could find D batteries last night was Tower Records, and only water to be found was a Circle-K off the beaten path. We went on our monthtly trip to Price Club last night too, and the place was a mad house.

Even if the storm cuts itself to half intensity by the time it crosses Richmond and reaches the DC area, 60 mph winds are going to create havoc here. People also need to remember the Ches. Bay is warmer than the Atlantic, and warmer water and air means the storm will probably strengthen a bit as it swirls the bay with its east side. Our ground is already saturated and two inches causes a lot of flooding around here right now. Another 6-10 inches like they say we could get would be detrimental. Old Town Alexandria, and the Georgetown/DC Harbour are going to get slammed. You think the Potomac has looked bad after spring storms before, watch out.

I have a lot of trees on our lot, and am debating having the boat on the trailer tucked up next to the house, or out in the open in the driveway. What do you guys think? All the cars/truck will be inside the garage.

Peconic: Good radar pict.

:eek: Be safe everyone!

Just got a boat out at 11:30 at raiseing tide already 2' higher then normal.

The tidal rise will be fun to deal with:eek:

I have been in Hatteras when the water crossed the road during a normal high tide! :fish: :fish: :fish:

Did the eye of the storm go on shore yet?
 

:confused: