ISABEL - Could mean trouble.
 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 110839
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...POWERFULL HURRICANE ISABEL ON A WESTWARD TRACK...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 650 MILES...
1050 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ISABEL IS A POWERFULL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...AND HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB...27.64 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N... 53.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 936 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...F/081203W5.gif

For those of us in the Southeast, it may be time to start keeping an eye on this one, making preperations and thinking about our boats, homes and families.
Looks nasty...

Do they think she's going to hit Cleveland soon, cause I ain't scared.

Let's hope for the best and it changes its path

Cleavlander maybe, and that should strike fear in all our hearts.

Still got LOTS of time to turn North. They do not ussually tell they get past the Leewards anyhow. Just keep our eyes on it and hope for a front to move in.

Jon

We're boating this weekend, but I'll grease the trailer bearings on Sunday. The Pantera and I are hitting the road if it looks bad..

Let us pray it doesn't hit land anywhere!! and gawd forbid it rain in jacksonville next week. sure hope we can have a Fun weekend there and a safe one.. kneeling down!! Lord spare us that weekend will ya ? just that 1 is all we ask.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 112021
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500
MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

When I talked with the Wyndham guy's this am they said they were pretty concerned with the storm. This is one big hurricane !!! Dave

You got that right. Big is an understatement.

so is this ***** gonna hit florida? rough guestimate of when? maybe i won't go down to lauderdale this week....

Hey puder.....You can still come down to Lauderdale, just bring your surf board.....the surf's up, dude !!!!:D :D :D Wardey

If that track chart up there in the first post is any indication(ya right, when have they ever gotten that right), it would continue on a course to hit somewhere between Daytona and Jax next Saturday.

But these things are too unpredictable.

Just saw there's a chance another tropical depression may form off the Carolinas which would draw Isabel more northward, which would just have the Carolina people doing handstands, I'm sure. At this point, no matter where it goes, the sheer size of this storm is it will affect Florida. It's only a question of how much and how bad. If it hits the east coast as a Category 4/5 storm, it will hit us on the West coast as a Category 2 storm, which is plenty bad enough. At least the west coast shouldn't have to worry about a real bad storm surge. All we can do is wait. AND I HATE WAITING....
Outlaw

As somone that lives in Jacksonville I'm sure hoping Isabel doesn't come here but then again I wouldn't want to wish it on anyone else:( I hope it doesn't mess with the poker run the weekend of the 20th. I'm planning on seeing the boats as they come into the Crab Shack:D Time to go buy some water and batteries just in case.....

It's supposed to be here Friday.

Have you seen the latest reports?????
I'ts now classified as a catagory 5 hurricane. That's the same strength that Hurricane Andrew reached prior to hitting Homested.
Air Force weather flight indicated an air temp of -70C (-94F) in the cloud tops.

We've got to keep and eye on this one!

It is certainly one to think and prepare for, last hurricane to threaten jacksonville, traffiic heading west on I-10 stood at a standstill for over 6 hours, most people ending up turning around and going home. by the looks of this one. there may not be a home.

We are ready to leave for Florida to start looking for a home. I guess I better get used to this. So what do all the boaters do when one of these babies comes to town. I imagine yu can find shelter for trailerable boats but what do the biggers guys do?

We just had Fabian come thru here, take the warnings VERY seriously. The tower at Harbour Radio blew off after sustained 176MPH winds. This thing was here for 10hrs and made a HUGE mess of everything. I'll tell you one thing, Fabian couldn't drive a boat for S$%t as every other one is on the rocks.

Cheers,
Andy

I've got to take inventory and be sure I have all the bolts I need for our huricane shutters. Fortunately it'll only take me about an hour to put them up.
The wife asked what we'll do with the boat and trailer. Told her I'll park it in the front yard as close to the house as possible hoping it'll be shielded from the winds.

Mr. Demeanor,
Putting up with hurricanes, tornados and lightening is a way of life here. It's something you learn to put up with.
We moved here from Jersey and up there we had to deal with hurricanes, Nor'easters, blizzards, etc.
Mother Natures fury is nothing new to us. We just make sure our homeowners policy is good and covers all contingencies up to and including total loss of our home.

Good image, Trout. Amazing! :eek:

Just an FYI: The pic in my first post is automatically updated by the host site. Hit Reload every time you open this thread to get the latest.

It looks like the latest image is predicting Isabel to hit somewhere near the Georgia/S. Carolina border.

Maximum sustained winds at 160 with higher gusts.

Pressure is at 921mbars. Hurricane Andrew at its peak was only down to 928mbars; Lower pressure means stronger convection, thus a stronger system.

--------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120843
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD
TRACK...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME TEMPORARY WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 57.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

I'm gonna pull the generator out to make sure it runs, hope that monster goes somewhere else:mad:

You got that right, Mike.
I hope it just makes a turn northward and just dies off in the Atlantic.

There's some major devastation potential in that storm.

Im not going to let it spoil my weekend! Im going to Put In Bay! Bring it on!:D

Team,
I don't think you need to be too worried. :)

Even storms don't want to go there!:p

Yes it is but likely to turn north and hit colder water. Lets hope so at leaste. One hell of a eye on that thing!!!! Lets hope that boaters are smart enough to run for shelter on this one. I know one 85 foot boat that was lost last hurrican through when the captain made a break for it and did not make it through. Boat went down in 85 ya you great lakes guys 85 foot waves off the Grand Banks. All aboard dead

No need to worry until about Tuesday or so. Then we'll know where she's pointed.
If it's goint to hit here with anything more than a Cat 2 force... I'll be trailering the P boat over by Cuda and Bajadaze...
Anybody have a nice garage for my boat.. just for a couple of days...

Troutly durring the "perfect Storm" we were seeing wave heights up to 180 feet (bouy reports)!!!!! I think I would chit my drawers!!!

Jon

Hey but ya know what the great lakes guys say. They have rougher water....... :D:D

Hopefully everyone in it's path has time to prepare (the best they can for a Category 5 storm).

Guess we should bring the big water props to the Miami race next Sunday. Residuals from something that big should still have things stirred up. SQ

I cant even imagine what an 85 foot wave would be like!

Im glad I dont live near the ocean. We're too stupid to be afraid of waves, and boat in any kind of weather thinking its ok!:D


One time me and a buddy were fishing off the coast of Florida. We were only 17 at the time. We got into a pretty bad storm about 50 miles out. We were making Gilligan Island jokes the whole time, and my buddys dad got really pissed and was telling us how people are lost at sea all the time! We finally started getting nervous when we seen about 3 sharks surface and seeminly going crazy!

Ask the crew on the Edmund Fitzgerald!:D :D :D

The following "Duiscussion" goes into a little more detail than the standard "Advisories." I've been following hurricanes for the past 20 years for my business, and found these to be more informative:

By all idications, it looks like it will start a Northward turn......just don't know when.

Hurricane Isabel Discussion Number 26


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 12, 2003


Morning satellite imagery and microwave data from last night show
that Isabel has completed a concentric eyewall cycle. It now has a
well-defined 35 nm wide eye well embedded in the central dense
overcast. The cirrus outflow is still good in the southeast and
northwest quadrants...but is only fair to poor elsewhere and on the
whole looks less good than yesterday. Satellite intensity estimates
are all 140 kt...so that is the initial intensity. However...since
the time of the estimates there has been some warming of the
eyewall convective tops. NOAA and Air Force reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft will investigate the hurricane this afternoon.

The initial motion is 270/8. Isabel is currently south of a
low/mid-level ridge...with an anticyclone center in water vapor
imagery near 29n55w...and between large upper-level troughs along
68w and 41w. In the short term...this should produce a westward to
possibly west-northwestward motion. Further upstream...a deep
layer cyclonic circulation is over the southeastern United States
with a mid/upper-level ridge building over southeastern Canada.
The evolution of these features...along with the westerlies over
the central United States...will determine the long-range course of
Isabel. NHC track guidance generally agrees on a westward to
west-northwestward motion through 72 hr...and the official forecast
track follows along the south edge of the guidance. Considerable
divergence occurs after 72 hr. The UKMET calls for a gradual turn
toward the northwest by 120 hr toward a weakness in ridge left by
the deep-layer low as it lifts northward. On the other hand...the
GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL... Canadian...and ecmwf models all call for an
earlier and more northward motion. Since all models keep some deep
layer ridging over the northwest Atlantic north and northeast of
Isabel...so sharp of a turn looks a little dubious. Thus...the 3-5
day official forecast will lean toward the UKMET at a slower
forward speed.

Isabel is forecast to remain in a warm-water low-shear environment
for roughly the next 72 hr. During that time...the intensity
should be controlled mainly by hard-to-forecast eyewall replacement
cycles. The intensity forecast will thus call for a slow weakening
through that time based on continuity from the previous forecasts
and climatology. After 72 hr...the GFS and NOGAPS suggest that
Isabel may move north of a 200 mb anticyclone and get exposed to
some shear. The SHIPS model responds to this by forecasting 30 kt
of southwesterly shear by 120 hr. Based on this...the intensity
forecast will call for a somewhat faster weakening. It should be
noted that the large-scale models all forecast Isabel to grow in
size beyond 72 hr...which may be reflected in later wind radii
forecasts.
Given the divergence of the models at 120 hr...it is still to early
to even speculate which parts...if any...of eastern coast of the
United States may get affected by Isabel.

Forecaster Beven

I just downloaded the most most recent storm track. Doesn't look good! :D

Cord thats to funny lets hope we can laugh next week!:cool:

That was good, Cord! :D ;)

DAMN YOU CORD!!!!!

LMAO :D :D :D :D

A few years ago there was one that something very similar to what you estimate. The hurricane crossed the state, went out over water, gained strength and looped back to cross the state again.