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ISABEL - Could mean trouble.

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Old 09-15-2003, 07:44 AM
  #61
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Got that right Troutly! The track remains unchanged from my last post. At least my house is up much higher (17.5' above mean high) than most houses here along the oceanfront. And the city just completed a million dollar hurricane protection project and built a new boardwalk/seawall and beach. Still.....I am scared s**tless. Please go by out to sea!!

Best of luck to everyone it her path.
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Old 09-15-2003, 11:58 AM
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Great pics, Troutly.

Well, it looks for the time being that the very southeast has been spared. However, I fear for those in the NC/VA area. Looks like the Chesapeake will take a direct hit by the latest estimates. Remember, they're just estimates, but looks like it's time to prepare.

--------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 151429
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 15 2003

...ISABEL SLOWS AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 505 MILES...815 KM...EAST OF NASSAU.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.2 N... 69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Old 09-15-2003, 12:18 PM
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Here's the 11:00am Discussion Update. Looks like it will be on Cape Hatteras in 72 hours, and will be a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3.

Hurricane Isabel Discussion Number 38

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 15, 2003


satellite imagery indicates that the inner core structure continues
to break down...with a less well-defined eye in visible imagery.
Eyewall convection has become asymmetric and fragmented...and the
overall convective structure is now more banded than it was over
the past couple of days. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates are 115 kt. The advisory intensity is lowered to 120 kt
and another reconnaissance aircraft will be in the hurricane at
18z.
The initial motion is 300/7...slower than before. With the
mid-level short wave off the Carolinas moving out to the
northeast...the steering currents surrounding Isabel are beginning
to weaken as some ridging temporarily builds in northwest...ahead
of...the hurricane. This should result in a slow motion to the
northwest over the next day or two. By 48 hours or so...an
approaching trough from the west will help accelerate Isabel
north-northwestward around the west side of the deep-layer ridge
anchored near 35n and 60 W. Model guidance is in excellent
agreement on this track although the GFS is considerably slower
than the other models. Very little change has been made to the
official forecast track...which is very close to the GFDL...
UKMET...NOGAPS...GFS model consensus.
Although there has been some restriction of the outflow in the
southwest quadrant...the current weakening may be more a result of
less favorable environmental thermodynamics. There are westerlies
to the north of Isabel...but the shear is expected to be light for
the next 36 hours or so. There will be plenty of warm water
under the hurricane until cooler shelf waters are encountered right
along the coastline. One key to the ultimate landfall intensity
will be the evolution of an upper-level trough that could enhance
the outflow and reduce the shear prior to landfall if it digs as
sharply as forecast by the GFS. With this in mind...Isabel could
still be a major hurricane at landfall.
Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 15/1500z 25.2n 69.4w 120 kt
12hr VT 16/0000z 25.8n 70.3w 115 kt
24hr VT 16/1200z 27.0n 71.2w 115 kt
36hr VT 17/0000z 28.2n 72.0w 115 kt
48hr VT 17/1200z 30.0n 73.0w 115 kt
72hr VT 18/1200z 34.5n 75.5w 110 kt
96hr VT 19/1200z 40.0n 78.0w 60 kt...inland
120hr VT 20/1200z 49.5n 80.0w 30 kt...extratropical
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Old 09-16-2003, 12:33 PM
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TTT

The tracking chart under Baja Daze's first post is one of the best I have found. I like the way it updates regularly. (How did you do that anyway?)

Let's hope she keeps losing steam!
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Old 09-16-2003, 12:42 PM
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I hear ya Macklin! Living one block from the Bay looking North is going to be scarry enough!
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Old 09-16-2003, 12:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Macklin
TTT

The tracking chart under Baja Daze's first post is one of the best I have found. I like the way it updates regularly. (How did you do that anyway?)

Let's hope she keeps losing steam!
I thought the updating was the best part, too.

I just posted a pic from another site using the IMG code.
It looks like this, just without the spaces:
[ IMG]http://www.place_the_pic_link_here[ /IMG]
or you can use the "IMG" button when you post.

I just happened to get lucky and find a link to a chart that the author of the site updates regularly, using the same link.

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Old 09-16-2003, 03:21 PM
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I found a good site with some real up to date accurate info and images.
www.boatus.com/hurricanes
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Old 09-16-2003, 06:06 PM
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Isabel, always updated:



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Old 09-17-2003, 04:02 AM
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Go away! Izzy!
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Old 09-17-2003, 08:59 AM
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Wow!
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